Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 280159
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
659 PM MST FRI MAY 27 2005

AZC019-021-280215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-050528T0215Z/
PINAL AZ-PIMA AZ-
659 PM MST FRI MAY 27 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 715 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL PIMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES...

AT 651 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF FRIENDLY CORNERS...OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTH
OF QUEENS WELL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRIENDLY CORNERS BY 715 PM MST

LAT...LON 3275 11151 3276 11192 3241 11192 3241 11152

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CS

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 280220
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
718 PM MST FRI MAY 27 2005

AZC019-021-280228-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-050528T0215Z/
PINAL AZ-PIMA AZ-
718 PM MST FRI MAY 27 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA AND SOUTH 
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 715 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...BUT WILL STILL 
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS 
LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3275 11151 3276 11192 3241 11192 3241 11152

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI MAY 27 2005

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND INSTABILITY WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH TUCSON. COOLING TREND ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. AN IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM BAJA
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. DRY AND HOTTER AGAIN AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING IS OBVIOUSLY A HUGE FACTOR IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SINCE THE CLOUD COVER LIMITS
SURFACE HEATING AND IT ULTIMATELY LIMITS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THUS FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TUCSON NEAR DOUGLAS AND NOGALES. DOUGLAS IS CURRENTLY 11F DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 19Z AND NOGALES IS 10F DEG COOLER. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER COCHISE AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES...NOT NEARLY AT THE SEVERE CRITERIA LEVEL THAT WAS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. KEMX RADAR INDICATING RELATIVELY
WEAK ECHOES OF 35 TO 40DBZ OVER MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTY AND GREENLEE
COUNTY.  THE STORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SAFFORD.  THE MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED THE CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO AS WELL.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY MAY 28TH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATION BREAKING
RECORD MAXIMUM RAINFALL.  OF COURSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT
EXACT LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS...THUS DECIDED TO JUST MENTION ALL THE
RECORDS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT TO BREAK THE RECORDS
FOR TUCSON TOMORROW WITH 0.89 INCHES SET IN 1943 OR CLIFTON 1.24
INCHES...BUT THOUGH WOULD JUST MENTION THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR
ADDITIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION REGARDING RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR OTHER SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...REFER TO PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT/AWIPS HEADER PHXPNSTWC/WMO HEADER NOUS45 KTWC.

WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.  EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW THAN
WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR TODAY.  HOWEVER...AGAIN IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER IS OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WE SHOULD GET ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND NOT RELYING ON SURFACE HEATING
ALONE.  GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING DOWN ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AREA...BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.  ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST
TWO WEEKS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF TUCSON. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG INCREASE IN RH
TRENDS. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING ON THE PERIPHERY OF STORMS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS AND OUTFLOWS A CONCERN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON