Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 312337
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
433 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

AZC019-010000-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-050801T0000Z/
PIMA AZ-
433 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 430 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 
MILES WEST OF VAIL...OR NEAR FAR SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...MOVING 
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WAS DEVELOPING JUST 
NORTHWEST OF CORONA DE TUCSON SOUTHWEST OF VAIL.

EARLIER...THIS STORM DREW A DUST DEVIL UP INTO THE FRONT FLANK 
OF THE STORM...BUT THIS STORM DID NOT GENERATE A TORNADO.

LAT...LON 3196 11083 3204 11062 3223 11071 3215 11098

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 312349
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
447 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

AZC019-010000-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-050801T0000Z/
PIMA AZ-
447 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 445 PM MST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED SOUTHEAST OF 
TUCSON...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 TO 5 MILES WEST OF 
VAIL...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

EARLIER A STORM NEAR FAR SOUTHEAST TUCSON WAS AT SEVERE LEVELS...BUT 
HAS SINCE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY.

LAT...LON 3196 11083 3204 11062 3223 11071 3215 11098

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 010006
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
500 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

AZC019-010010-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-050801T0000Z/
PIMA AZ-
500 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 500 PM MST...

AT 5 PM MST...THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND WEST OF VAIL 
HAD DIMINISHED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THIS STORM 
CONTINUED TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EARLIER AROUND 420 PM...THIS STORM WAS SEEN TO DRAW A PREVIOUSLY 
ESTABLISHED DUST DEVIL UP INTO THE FRONT FLANK OF THE STORM...BUT 
WHILE THIS WAS A DANGEROUS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT GENERATED 
3/4 INCH HAIL AND PROBABLY DAMAGING WINDS...THIS STORM DID NOT 
GENERATE A TORNADO.

LAT...LON 3196 11083 3204 11062 3223 11071 3215 11098

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA IN A MONSOON FLOW PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO MAY BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT ON MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN PLENTIFUL FOR A DAILY BOUT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A VERY
DISTINCTIVE SWIRL TO THE CLOUDS THAT...AS OF 1 PM...WAS MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE W-NW THROUGH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
OVER ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES FROM THIS MORNING HAD ERODED AWAY
AND LEFT A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE BUT IS SLOWLY STARTING
TO FILL IN. AS OF 2 PM...DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE MCV WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THAT THE STORMS ARE RAINERS.
THUS MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE BEEN CONSIDERING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN COCHISE/ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES SINCE THESE AREAS
RECORDED ONE TO TWO INCHES ON SATURDAY. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MOVEMENT OF STORMS A BIT MORE QUICKER THAN SATURDAY. SOME ACTIVITY
WILL BE LINGERING OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...EVEN
THOUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
EAST. BUT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP STANDARD MONSOON
FORECAST...WITH SOME DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES AND
AREAL COVERAGE...IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH RH VALUES
THROUGH MONDAY...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF WETTING
RAINS SEEMS PRETTY GOOD TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCES IN FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 148. RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY BE REDUCED ON MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE
A FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AFTER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
WITHIN THE CWA AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE VACINITY OF ALL
THREE TAF FORECAST POINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1215 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

AZZ033>035-010700-
COCHISE COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-
1215 AM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE AND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES IN ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...CONDITIONS SEEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES. CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY BURNING AWAY...AND SUNSHINE
MAY BE ABLE TO PEEK IN BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COUPLED WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...MAY GIVE RISE TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS OR HAIL.  LIKE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT THREAT IS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

DISCUSSION...KTUS SOUNDING FOR THIS MORNING CAME IN VERY SIMILAR TO
ITS PRECURSOR OF 24 HOURS AGO. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BEING
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WAS
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...IT IS STARTING TO BURN OFF. ENERGY FROM
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH ENERGY ALREADY
AVAILABLE FROM THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL NO DOUBT ASSIST STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MAY GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR
HAIL THREAT. PREDOMINANT THREAT REMAINS TO BE FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN
NO CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS WELL AS TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT YESTERDAYS RAINFALL...LOCATIONS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINS
YESTERDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING TODAY
IF THEY SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED MONDAY
AND/OR TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-029>032-010700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1215 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH INTO THE
PINAL...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTIES SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE...AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL INCREASE INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL TODAY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT IS FROM HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE
MORNING...WHILE NOT CLOUDLESS...SAW LESS CLOUDS THAN EASTERN
PIMA...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THIS ALLOWED SOME DEGREE OF
SUNSHINE IN...ADDING MORE ENERGY TO AN ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ARIZONA NEW MEXICO BORDER AND ALONG THE
RIM AS WELL. MOVEMENT IS PREDOMINANTLY TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THE RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT THREAT
FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SMR/PYTLAK