Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 292058
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
158 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

AZC019-292115-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-050729T2115Z/
PIMA AZ-
158 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 215 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 150 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL AT 
PARK PLACE MALL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TUCSON. THIS STORM WAS 
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SABINO 
CANYON AND CATALINA FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM.

LAT...LON 3207 11064 3233 11063 3245 11118 3208 11120

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SMR

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 292118
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

AZC019-292117-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-050729T2115Z/
PIMA AZ-
215 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS 
EXPIRED...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. AT 207 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM PASSING OVER THE TUCSON METRO 
AREA HAD WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREASHOLDS.  THOUGH 
THIS STORM IS WEAKENING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL 
BE EXPECTED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AND AVOID FLOOD 
PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3207 11064 3233 11063 3245 11118 3208 11120

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SMR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA...RESULTING IN AN UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STATEWIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM A
DECAYING COMPLEX IN NORTHERN SONORA LAST NIGHT. MAIN CLOUD SHIELD
CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER COCHISE COUNTY...BUT STILL SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE CLOUDS ARE ROUGHLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NOGALES...TO TUCSON...TO SAFFORD. CURRENT
KEMX RADAR LOOP INDICATING A FEW WEAK RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MEXICO...SOUTH OF DOUGLAS AND SIERRA
VISTA. THIS AREA WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE EARLY THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG
THE BORDER...AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD ERODE AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON.

OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPLEX
IN SONORA LAST NIGHT. ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS...DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN AT LEAST 10 DEGREES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG SURGE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA (WITH YUMAS DEWPOINT RISING
A VERY IMPRESSIVE 18 DEGREES). THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KTUS AND KPSR BOTH
SHOW AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM YESTERDAY. THE TUCSON SOUNDING
MAY BE A LITTLE MISLEADING WITH THE DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS GIVEN
INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE SURGE (AS VIEWED BY
GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY) ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS. IN
FACT...THE KPSR SOUNDING IS PROBABLY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WE
WILL MODIFY INTO DURING THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SEVERAL MOISTURE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MAY COME INTO PLAY TO HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION
TODAY. THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LOOKS ON TRACK. SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY ALSO
GOOD GIVEN DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE (PWS AROUND A HALF AN INCH).
HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE ZONE PACKAGE FOR MORNING CLOUD COVER AND TO
RAISE POPS INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR COCHISE COUNTY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
227 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

MODELS KEEP US IN A PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
AROUND MID WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY...WITH
SLIGHT DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS. BY THAT TIME THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN STATES
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AS THE HIGH NEAR US ALSO MOVES WESTWARD WHICH
SETS US UP FOR MORE OF A NE MEAN WIND FLOW. THIS PATTERN USUALLY
RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS...AND THE GRIDS/ZONES REFLECT
THIS INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT THE CENTURY MARK
FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA. THEREAFTER TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO HAS
BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA...BUT IT IS RELEGATED TO MAINLY
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146...AND HENCE SHOULD ONLY AFFECT RH RECOVERIES
THERE TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL SPILL OVER
COUNTERING THIS DRYING...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THAT SAID...ANY DRYING TREND
WILL BE EXTREMELY SHORT LIVED. STANDARD MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...INCLUDING ALL TAF FORECAST
POINTS. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO 6K FT AGL AT KDUG AND KOLS...
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 8K FT AGL AT KTUS. VISIBILITIES OF 3-5SM CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC DISCUSSION...ZELL
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...SMR

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1105 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

AZZ019-029>035-301400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1105 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN UPPER MOISTURE AND A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETUP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THESE
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS BY MID
AFTERNOON. A FAST STORM MOTION...TO THE WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF ORGANIZING INTO STRONGER SYSTEMS...THUS INCREASING THE
RISK OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

DISCUSSION...BOTH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN ONGOING GULF
SURGE IN THE LOWER DESERTS. THE YUMA RADAR INDICATED 15 TO 25 KTS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING UP TO 4000 FEET...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RESIDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70. IN FACT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE MOISTURE HAS NOT
PUSHED  AS FAR NORTHEAST AS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES...WERE
DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE 50S. THE GOES-10 PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SURGE HAS SPILLED MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

ALTHOUGH THE MORNING TUCSON UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED AN INCREASE
IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...IT REMAINED RATHER DRY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS WAS BECAUSE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAD NOT ARRIVED AT THE TIME
OF THE SOUNDING...BUT SHOULD MODIFY TO SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE PHOENIX UPPER AIR SOUNDING BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING DID
CONFIRM A RATHER STRONG STEERING FLOW/SPEED SHEAR SETUP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRONGER SHEER IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO BETTER
ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS INCREASE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. IN ANY EVENT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONGER STORM MOTION WILL
REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL...REDUCING THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE MOIST LOW AND MID LEVELS
WILL STILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO
OCCUR.

A MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALOFT...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM SASABE TO
FLORENCE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO A LINE FROM
SIERRA VISTA TO SAFFORD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A GENERAL WEAKNESS
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY AS A COL EXISTS BETWEEN TWO
UPPER HIGH CENTERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO. THIS
WEAKNESS WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

THEREFORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPPER MOISTURE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE VALLEYS BY MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FAST STORM MOTION WILL
REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF ORGANIZING INTO STRONGER SYSTEMS...THUS INCREASING THE
RISK OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
MAINTAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AN
UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.