Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 272059
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
159 PM MST WED JUL 27 2005

AZC019-021-272115-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-050727T2115Z/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
159 PM MST WED JUL 27 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 215 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 145 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CATALINA...OR ABOUT NEAR ORO VALLEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY AT 210 PM MST

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY 
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS CAUGHT UNDER HEAVY 
RAINS MAY SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT 
AMOUNT OF TIME. NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND STREAMS WILL BEGIN TO FLOW 
OR POSSIBLY FLOOD WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.


LAT...LON 3237 11075 3269 11087 3268 11124 3234 11127

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SMR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST WED JUL 27 2005

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY. SOME DRIER AIR MAY
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA LATER THIS WEEK
FOR A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST KEMX RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL
TO SIERRA VISTA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE WEAKENED
AND PUSHED SOUTH. STILL A FEW WEAK SHOWERS NEAR ARIVACA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION FLARED UP AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHED NORTHEAST AND INTERSECTED A MOISTURE
BOUNDARY...CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ANY
EVENT...THERE IS PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT SOLAR
HEATING TODAY.

THE LATEST GOES-10 PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KTUS UPPER AIR
SOUNDING...WHICH NOT ONLY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT DEPICTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.56 INCHES. THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A COOLING IN MID
LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...INCREASING LAPSE RATES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS INCREASING THE INSTABILITY OVER YESTERDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS WEAKNESS
ALOFT WILL HELP THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A LACK OF A MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG TODAY.
ALTHOUGH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS HOWEVER A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETUP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT
NUDGING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SERVE AS A BOUNDARY TO
HELP FIRE CONVECTION ALONG. HOPEFULLY THE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIMIT
SOLAR HEATING TOO MUCH.

AS THE H5 HIGH CENTER MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL SEE A
SHIFT/INCREASE IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE VALLEYS DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE SKY ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE VALLEYS. THE
INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BETTER
ORGANIZE...RESULTING IN NOT ONLY A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW AND MID LEVELS...BUT ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO BY LATE THIS WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOONAL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE MONSOONAL FLOW
PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF KTUS...KDUG...AND KOLS. CEILINGS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO 4K FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AT KDUG AND KOLS...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AGL AT KTUS. VSBY OF
3-5SM CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

RASMUSSEN

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST WED JUL 27 2005

AZZ019-029>035-281400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
915 AM MST WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. THESE STORMS WILL
INITIALLY STAY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER..STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-10 PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KTUS UPPER AIR
SOUNDING...WHICH NOT ONLY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT DEPICTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.56 INCHES. THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A COOLING IN MID
LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...INCREASING LAPSE RATES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS INCREASING THE INSTABILITY OVER YESTERDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA. THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF A MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG TODAY. ALTHOUGH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS HOWEVER A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT NUDGING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL SEE A
SHIFT/INCREASE IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE VALLEYS DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE SKY ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE VALLEYS. THE
INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BETTER
ORGANIZE...RESULTING IN NOT ONLY A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW AND MID LEVELS...BUT ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOONAL FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1129 AM MST WED JUL 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ORO VALLEY              32.42N 110.96W
07/26/2005                   PIMA               AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PIMA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL REPORTED THAT OVERTON ROAD AT
            CANADA DEL ORO WASH WAS CLOSED AT 703 PM DUE TO FLOOD
            WATERS. THE WASH REMAINED CLOSED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
            EARLIER THAT AFTERNOON THREE RAIN GAGES IN THE MIDDLE TO
            UPPER CANADA DEL ORO WATERSHED REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
            IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR.

&&

SCHAFFNER