Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 262058
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

AZC021-262115-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-050726T2115Z/
PINAL AZ-
155 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 215 PM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY...

AT 150 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARAVAIPA CREEK
PRESERVE TO CAMPO BONITO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. 

THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A 
RAINFALL GAGE ON ORACLE RIDGE REPORTED THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN 20 MINUTES. 

LAT...LON 3289 11046 3287 11093 3253 11095 3253 11046

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

RASMUSSEN

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 262111
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
209 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

AZC021-262115-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-050726T2115Z/
PINAL AZ-
209 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 215 PM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY...

AT 208 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMPO
BONITO...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORO VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...OR 
1.18 INCHES OVER ORACLE RIDGE IN A HALF HOUR TIME. RAPID RAINFALL 
RUNOFF WILL QUICKLY FILL NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND WASHES. 

LAT...LON 3289 11046 3287 11093 3253 11095 3253 11046

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

RASMUSSEN

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 262116
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

AZC021-262125-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-050726T2115Z/
PINAL AZ-
215 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 215 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY HAS FALLEN BELOW 
SEVERE LEVELS AND HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 215 PM MST.
 
HOWEVER...THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...OR 1.18 
INCHES OVER ORACLE RIDGE IN A HALF HOUR. RAPID RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL 
QUICKLY FILL NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND WASHES. 

LAT...LON 3289 11046 3287 11093 3253 11095 3253 11046

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

RASMUSSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
928 AM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. SOME DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE
WEEK FOR LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER COCHISE
COUNTY...AND SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE SKY ISLAND MOUNTAINS.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...
WITH GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.8 INCHES. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
WAS NOTED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS/GREENLEE COUNTY WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCH. THE 12Z KTUS RAOB INDICATES WE HAVE DRIED
OUT ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID LEVELS...HOWEVER WE ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. STILL MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION...AND GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...
ACTIVITY SHOULD START DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. FAR WESTERN AREAS (WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY) MAY NOT
SEE MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY AS STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST IS
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. AGAIN...THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...HOWEVER THE RISK OF STRONG WINDS IS UP A NOTCH
DUE TO THE DRIER MID LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CWA LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS DO SHOW DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN
DESERTS AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
IN MID LEVELS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
15 PERCENT.

REMEMBER...STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AFTER 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING THE
VICINITY OF KTUS...KDUG...AND KOLS. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO 4K
FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KDUG AND KOLS...WITH
CEILINGS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KTUS AROUND 6K FT AGL. VISIBILITIES OF
2-4SM CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF BLOWING DUST FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...ZELL
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CWR

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1100 AM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

AZZ019-029>035-271400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1007 AM MST TUE JUL 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...PERSISTING INTO EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOVING
EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR LOCATIONS TUCSON EAST.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-10 PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH DRIER...YET
STILL MOIST...AIR RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THE WEAK STORM MOTION...TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS FROM TUCSON
EAST TODAY WILL INCREASE EVAPORATION IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFT...THUS INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WET MICROBURST.

RATHER WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY
WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...IN THE
EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE SHEAR IS STRONGER DUE TO A DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHER PORTION OF THE STATE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO MAJOR TRIGGERING MECHANISMS PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...A MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO RELY
ON SOLAR HEATING TODAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON...THEN PUSH OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.