Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 262142
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST THU MAY 26 2005

AZC003-262200-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-050526T2200Z/
COCHISE AZ-
242 PM MST THU MAY 26 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 233 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HEREFORD...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SIERRA VISTA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 80 AND 90 BY 300 PM MST

LAT...LON 3161 11037 3135 11039 3134 10987 3147 10978
      3159 10993

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 262159
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 PM MST THU MAY 26 2005

AZC003-262207-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-050526T2200Z/
COCHISE AZ-
257 PM MST THU MAY 26 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 300 PM MST...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING EARLIER HAD 
DECREASED SOME IN INTENSITY. THE STORM WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
SMALL HAIL AROUND PEA SIZE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS IT MOVES 
EAST AT 10 MPH. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL HAD DIMINISHED 
AND THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3161 11037 3135 11039 3134 10987 3147 10978
      3159 10993

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1010 AM MST THU MAY 26 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY...AND FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON ON
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
RETURNS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED-BROKEN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS AT THIS
TIME. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA/SE PINAL
COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE 30S NE TO THE MID 40S-MID 50S
SRN AND WRN SECTIONS. THESE VALUES WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS
AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 17Z WERE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS LOWER VERSUS THIS
TIME WED.

26/12Z KTUS SOUNDING INDICATED A SOMEWHAT DRIER PROFILE VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE NEAR 0.55 INCH. MOST PRONOUNCED
DRYING VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO WAS IN THE SURFACE-H7 LAYER. SLIGHTLY
WARMER IN THE SURFACE-H7 LAYER BUT SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO. ENVIRONMENT STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...THOUGH A MORE
STABLE PROFILE VERSUS WED MORNING...WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUE NEAR
MINUS 2 AND UNMODIFIED SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 519 J/KG. MODIFIED
SOUNDING WITH MAX TEMP OF 101 AND DEWPOINT OF 45 YIELDED LIFTED
INDEX OF MINUS 4 AND CAPE VALUE AROUND 1265 J/KG.

GOES PRECIP WATER IMAGERY INDICATED NEARLY ONE-INCH VALUES JUST S OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER NRN SONORA AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS NEAR THE
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVED EWD AND PRODUCED A FEW DIME-SIZED
HAIL REPORTS. BELIEVE SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SE OF KTUS. THUS
WILL KEEP INHERITED POP/WEATHER FORECASTS WITHOUT CHANGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH SE AZ FROM THE SW BY
LATE FRI...WITH MAIN IMPACT IN THE FORM OF INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT AFTERNOON-EARLY SUN. WILL LIKELY REFLECT THIS INCREASED
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT WILL COORDINATE WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ BEFORE MAKING THIS CHANGE.
MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED EWD STARTING SUN WITH BULK OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MON WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREAWIDE.

FOCUS OF ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD MID-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA COAST EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS POSITION GIVEN THE VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER AT THIS TIME AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE
148...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON