Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MOIST AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVENTUALLY...SOME DRIER
AIR MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK FOR LESS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...LESS SHEAR ON THE MORNING SOUNDING...OTHERWISE THE 12Z
KTUS SOUNDING LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
STILL A HEFTY 1.84 INCHES WITH JUST A TOUCH OF COOLING IN THE
COLUMN. SURFACE DEWPTS RUNNING IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT AS MUCH
DEBRIS CLOUD FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
SOLAR INSOLATION TO START COOKING THINGS UP. ANOTHER DAY WHERE HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. PROBABLY SLOWER
STORMS BUT TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS BIG AN ISSUE.

ETA BRINGS IN A WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW FROM THE EAST IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS TO KEEP STRONG CONVECTION GOING
OVERNIGHT IN SOME SPOTS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
POSSIBLE LATE.

SHOULD KEEP A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED
ENHANCEMENTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SOME SIGNS OF GAINING A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE IN
THE WEEK BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH THIS WOULD DRY THINGS OUT FOR
OUR CORNER OF THE STATE.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS... RESULTING IN A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG...ERRATIC AND SHIFTING WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING
RAPID RUNOFF INTO WASHES AND STREAMS.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG AND KOLS AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF KTUS. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO 4K FT AGL AT KDUG AND KOLS...WITH CEILINGS A LITTLE HIGHER AT
KTUS AROUND 6K FT AGL. VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

MEYER/ZELL

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1120 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

AZZ029>035-251400-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1120 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY...GRAHAM COUNTY...AND PIMA COUNTY

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHERE THERE ARE LESS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...INITIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...WITH SOME RETURNS ALREADY NOTED ON THE KEMX RADAR...
MAINLY OVER COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD
COVER. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA) THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-251400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
1120 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE
SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO
THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON
MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ZELL