Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 252121
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 PM MST WED MAY 25 2005

AZC003-252200-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-050525T2200Z/
COCHISE AZ-
219 PM MST WED MAY 25 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 217 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS NOW LOCATED NEAR TOMBSTONE...OR ABOUT 19 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF SIERRA VISTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3191 11023 3167 11024 3166 10991 3190 10992

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 252157
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 PM MST WED MAY 25 2005

AZC003-252206-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-050525T2200Z/
COCHISE AZ-
256 PM MST WED MAY 25 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 300 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD 
DECREASED IN INTENSITY. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL 
EXPIRE AT 300 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3191 11023 3167 11024 3166 10991 3190 10992

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED MAY 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW
BUILDUPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING FROM KTUS VICINITY WWD WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRROFORM
CLOUDS MOVING NWD/NEWD ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
UPPER 30S-LOWER 50S VALID 15Z. THESE VALUES WERE NEARLY 5 DEGS
HIGHER ACROSS COCHISE/GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES BUT WERE ABOUT 5 DEGS
LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SECTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 25/12Z KTUS
SOUNDING REFLECTED A SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUE NEAR 0.80 INCH. LIFTED INDEX VALUE WAS NEAR MINUS 3 WITH
UNMODIFIED SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 1302 J/KG...INDICATING A SOMEWHAT
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT VERSUS TUE MORNING. ANALYSES OF 25/12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA WITH H5
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN NM. LIGHT SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
OVER SRN AZ.

INHERITED FORECASTS INDICATE LOW-GRADE POPS FROM TUCSON VICINITY EWD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON SRN COCHISE
COUNTY. GIVEN THE ABOVE DIAGNOSTICS...APPEARS THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE LOW-GRADE POP SCENARIO...WITH
BELIEF THAT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY VERSUS TUE WILL OCCUR.

UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO SUPPORT LOW-GRADE POPS
MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY AGAIN THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
VICINITY BAJA EARLY FRI TO MIGRATE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT. THUS APPPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM...AND AGAIN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO AREAS E OF TUCSON.

DRIER REGIME BY SUN AS WLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
SUBSEQUENTLY ACROSS NRN AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SURFACE WIND
SHOULD OCCUR MON AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES N OF
THIS AREA. CONTINUED DRY AREAWIDE MON-TUE.

MAIN IMPACT ON SE AZ WEATHER DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN DAYTIME MAX TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS THE
RECENT RECORD-BREAKING HEAT SHOULD ABATE WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY
MEMORIAL DAY TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASED BY AS MUCH AS 15
PERCENT AS MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY. MUCH OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. CONTINUED DEEP MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE GUSTINESS AND 4-6 HAINES INDICES INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND THEN
EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON