Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 232019
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
118 PM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

AZC003-232045-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-050723T2045Z/
COCHISE AZ-
118 PM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 145 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 112 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE 
HAIL...WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR SUNIZONA MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LAT...LON 3168 10962 3186 10943 3208 10970 3188 10991

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

JRG

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 232032
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
129 PM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

AZC003-232039-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-050723T2045Z/
COCHISE AZ-
129 PM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 125 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
NEAR SUNIZONA HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THUS THE WARNING 
WAS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO 
CONTINUE FROM SUNIZONA SOUTH TO NEAR ELFRIDA THROUGH 145 PM MST. 
SOME LOW-WATER CROSSINGS ALONG HIGHWAY 191 MAY HAVE SOME WATER 
FLOWING THROUGH.

LAT...LON 3168 10962 3186 10943 3208 10970 3188 10991

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

JRG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MOIST AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...12Z KTUS SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP
TO 1.87 AND MORNING SURFACE DEWPTS NEAR 70 IN SOME SPOTS. ALMOST TOO
WET...BUT CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY SHOWING A LOT OF BREAKS IN EASTERN
AREAS. ANYTHING THAT FORMS TODAY WILL BE RATHER WET...BUT STEERING
LEVEL FLOW BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SOUNDING WAS ALSO HINTING AT
A TOUCH OF WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS. REMNANTS OF EMILY PUSHING OUT
OF SONORA AND OFFSHORE...NEXT EASTERLY IMPULSE NOW PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT SOME POINT WE COULD HIT A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF
BETTER STABILITY AROUND OUR POSITION IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...BUT
THATS RELATIVE. IT BY NO MEANS SHUTS US DOWN AND AS MENTIONED
BEFORE HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FROM THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG...ERRATIC AND SHIFTING WINDS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAUSING RAPID RUNOFF INTO WASHES AND STREAMS.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...INCLUDING IN THE
VICINITY OF KTUS...KDUG...AND KOLS. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 5K FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON AT KDUG AND KOLS... WITH CEILINGS A LITTLE HIGHER AT
KTUS AROUND 7K FT AGL. VISIBILITIES OF 3-5SM CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HIT 101 DEGREES
FOR THE 39TH CONSECUTIVE DAY. THIS TIES THE ALL-TIME LONGEST STREAK
WHICH WAS SET IN 1987. THE CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD TODAY IS
ABOUT 50/50...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

MEYER/ZELL

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1125 AM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

AZZ029>035-241400-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1125 AM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY AND PIMA COUNTY

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. WITH FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OR WHERE BREAKS OCCUR IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL OCCUR
EARLIER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME RETURNS ALREADY
NOTED ON THE KEMX RADAR...MAINLY OVER COCHISE COUNTY WHERE THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES) THERE IS A
HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AS
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...THE
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FORECAST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-241400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
1125 PM MST SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 20 MPH. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AS
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...THE
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FORECAST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ZELL