Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 200518
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1015 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2005

AZC019-200525-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-050720T0530Z/
PIMA AZ-
1015 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1015 PM MST THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM 
SELLS TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND 
IS NOW BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THE WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
AREAS OF THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3219 11180 3194 11182 3157 11175 3168 11214
      3195 11223 3220 11218

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON JUL 19 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATER IN THE
WEEK..WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY DROPPING BELOW THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT KEMX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST ECHOES OVER
THE TUCSON AREA EXTENDING SOUTH TO GREEN VALLEY AND TO THE WEST PAST
THREE POINTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...AND
NORTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. STORMS ARE PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN 15 MINUTES.

STORMS STARTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIM...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AND ALSO IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY NEAR NOGALES. OUTFLOWS
FROM THESE STORMS MOVED QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHEAST PINAL AND EASTERN
PIMA COUNTIES...AND EVENTUALLY MERGED OVER THE TUCSON AREA.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
IS PROGGED TO LINGER NEAR THE SAME AREA...EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY
OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE EMILY INTO MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS
WAY UP INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 9 PM SHOW THE AVERAGE DEWPOINT FOR THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AS 55 DEGREE F. WITH THE CURRENT RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TO STAY HIGH ENOUGH
THAT WE WILL REACHED THE AWAITED FIRST DAY OF AVERAGE DEWPOINT OF 54
F. ASSUMING SIMILAR SITUATIONS...OR INCREASED ACTIVITY THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WILL KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED THAT THIS WILL IN FACT BE THE
FIRST OFFICIAL DAY OF THE MONSOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PROSPECT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY IS THE 34TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS
BREAKS THE SECOND LONGEST STREAK OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES OF 100
DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE RECORD IS 39 DAYS...SET IN 1987. TODAY WILL
ALSO MARK THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 104
DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE CURRENT STREAK OF DAYS WITH 104 DEGREES OR
HIGHER RANKS SECOND...WITH THE RECORD BEING 24 DAYS SET IN 1994.
ALSO...THE AREA HAS BROKEN THE 2ND LATEST START TO THE MONSOON. THE
TOP 5 LATEST MONSOON START DATES ARE:

5TH)    JULY 14, 1985
4TH)    JULY 16, 1979
3RD)    JULY 17, 1997
2ND)    JULY 1?, 2005** **TO BE DETERMINED
LATEST) JULY 25, 1987

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SEVERE STORMS FROM THE TUCSON AREA
SOUTH TO GREEN VALLEY. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

DISCUSSION AND CLIMATE...PE
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CR

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1212 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2005

AZZ019-029>035-201400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1212 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A DISTURBANCE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AIDING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE EASTERN SKY ISLANDS...OR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. SINCE THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TODAY...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
CAPABILITY OF THESE STORMS TO ORGANIZE.

THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS BY THIS EVENING. SINCE THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.