Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 171954
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1253 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

AZC009-011-172015-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-050717T2015Z/
GRAHAM AZ-GREENLEE AZ-
1253 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 115 PM MST FOR WEST
CENTRAL GREENLEE AND EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 1246 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES SOUTH OF ROSE PEAK...OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
CLIFTON.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS 
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER 
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE 
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3344 10927 3350 10948 3313 10980 3298 10927

$$
EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 172013
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
111 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

AZC009-011-172021-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-050717T2015Z/
GRAHAM AZ-GREENLEE AZ-
111 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL GREENLEE AND EAST
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 115 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED SOUTH OF ROSE PEAK HAS DECREASED IN 
INTENSITY. THEREFORE... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE 
AT 115 PM... BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN... GUSTY 
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES 
TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

LAT...LON 3344 10927 3350 10948 3313 10980 3298 10927

$$
EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
952 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL MAINTAIN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS WEEK...AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND MOVING SOUTH...AND ALSO JUST EAST OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
HEADED TOWARD EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH NOGALES REPORTING 86 DEGREES AND DOUGLAS 89. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 90S. THESE VALUES REPRESENT A CHANGE OF ZERO TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THESE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER/WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA...AND 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER/DRIER
THAN YESTERDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

THIS MORNINGS KTUS SOUNDING UNMODIFIED HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.25 INCHES...AN LI OF MINUS 4 AND A CAPE OF ABOUT 1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...AFTER MODIFICATION USING T=105TD=51 YIELDED A PW OF
1.22 AN LI OF MINUS 3 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG (IF LIFTING THE
PARCEL FROM THE SURFACE). USING THE MEAN TEMP LIFTING METHOD YIELDS
A SIMILAR PW...AN LI OF MINUS 2 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG...
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WE SEE MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO
OUR W AND NW WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE DRY AIR AND MOIST AIR
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WOULD
EXPECT THE STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THIS DRY/MOIST INTERFACE...BUT A
QUICK TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ZONE INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD
BE IN MEXICO OR CLOSE TO THE BORDER BY AROUND 21-22Z WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPILLING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
WHERE MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
EVEN SOUTH OF THE BORDER. CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES REFLECT THIS
NOTION...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
305 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

UPPER HIGH PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN NV/FAR NW AZ TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY. SERIES OF VORT MAXES PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND MOVE SWWD ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE
IMPULSES IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

17/00Z NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE UPPER HIGH NW OF THIS AREA
MON. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE THUS NOT MOVING THE UPPER HIGH AS FAR S AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MON BUT REALITY MAY BE SIMILAR COVERAGE VERSUS
SUN. AT ANY RATE PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH WILL START
TO TRANSITION NEWD TUE...AND PROGS INDICATE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AT THAT TIME. THUS BELIEVE AN INCREASE IN POPS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS WARRANTED. IN FACT BELIEVE THE SUBSEQUENT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LOW-GRADE POPS
MAINLY ERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

THEREAFTER FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELY/SELY AS THE UPPER
HIGH TRANSITIONS TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL
CONUS PLAINS. MOISTURE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASES ESPECIALLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS HAVE REVAMPED POP AND WEATHER
GRIDDED-DATA FIELDS DURING THE WED-SAT PERIOD TO REFLECT AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND PER COORD
WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TODAY INTO MID-WEEK EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID-JULY. OPTED FOR DECREASED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP PROSPECTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO STRONG SURFACE
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOWS...AS WELL AS ERRATIC AND SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BF/CS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1210 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

AZZ029-031-032-181400-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1210 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AND THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED... WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT MAY APPROACH 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ033-181400-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
1210 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-030-034-035-181400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY-SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY-
1210 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR GREENLEE... GRAHAM... COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS BEGUN TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS. HOWEVER... AMPLE
MOISTURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM STEERING FLOW
IS FROM THE NORTH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP IS STRONG WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD APPROACH 50 MPH.
HOWEVER... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN... SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF OVER 60 MPH OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

EVANS