Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 142327
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
425 PM MST FRI OCT 14 2005

AZC003-142345-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-051014T2345Z/
COCHISE AZ-
425 PM MST FRI OCT 14 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 417 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
PALOMINAS AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM HAS ALSO 
PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 
INCHES IN 30 MINUTES.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HEREFORD AND NICKSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3135 11019 3134 11001 3138 10996 3149 11005
      3147 11030

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 142344
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
441 PM MST FRI OCT 14 2005

AZC003-142351-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-051014T2345Z/
COCHISE AZ-
441 PM MST FRI OCT 14 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 445 PM MST...

AT 435 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
STORM OVER HEREFORD HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. THERE HAVE 
BEEN ONLY REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL FROM A SPOTTER NEAR HEREFORD AND 
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES WITH THIS STORM. SINCE THE STORM 
HAS WEAKENED AND NO REPORTS OF SEVERE CRITERIA...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3135 11019 3134 11001 3138 10996 3149 11005
      3147 11030

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST FRI OCT 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A WEAK
AND ELONGATED UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO...
EXTENDING INTO THE SE HALF OF AZ. AT 230 PM MST...KEMX RADAR WAS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...THE FASTER MOTION OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM FALLING IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZED HAIL. COVERAGE A TAD MORE THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED TODAY.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW CHANGING FROM A
NEUTRAL TILT TO A NEGATIVE TILT.

OTHERWISE...IT HAS BEEN A BREEZY DAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AS SURFACE OBS DEPICTING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. THIS WAS NO SURPRISE AS THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING DEPICTED A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 600
MB. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. AS OF 200 PM MST...SURFACE
DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WERE GENERALLY 6 TO 15 DEGS
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

OTHERWISE...THIS LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT JUST AS A
STRONGER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS RUN WAS
FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION AS IT SETTLES IN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST BY 00Z TUE. THE UPPER LOW THEN EJECTS ACROSS NW AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THE
BEST PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS ARE
USUALLY WARRANTED FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...THE FACT THAT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EJECTING LOW WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY SLOT ENTERING
INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE FUTURE MODEL RUNS TRACK THIS SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON