Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 032203
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

AZC003-032215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-050703T2215Z/
COCHISE AZ-
303 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 315 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 300 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE BISBEE-DOUGLAS 
AIRPORT...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF DOUGLAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3155 10958 3140 10971 3135 10963 3133 10947
      3142 10934

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 032222
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
319 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

AZC003-032229-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-050703T2215Z/
COCHISE AZ-
319 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 315 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH AT THE BISBEE-
DOUGLAS AIRPORT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAD WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS. THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL 
COCHISE COUNTY EXPIRED AT 315 PM.

LAT...LON 3155 10958 3140 10971 3135 10963 3133 10947
      3142 10934

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS OTHER THAN NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER... WHERE SOME STORMS MAY SPILL OVER FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP OVER SOUTHERN
COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND JUST ABOUT THE SAME
TIME AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. THE DEW POINTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 40S SINCE THIS MORNING PROVIDING AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE TO BREAK THROUGH THE WEAK TO
MODERATE CAP LEFT FROM THE MID LEVEL COOLING OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AS SEEN ON THE KTUS 12Z SOUNDING. ELSEWHERE... DEW POINTS ARE
HOVERING BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING UNDER AN
EAST/WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
PRODUCING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF ARIZONA OVER CENTRAL SONORA... MEXICO
AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N WELL INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO DIVIDE ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA AND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BE CENTERED OVER LAS VEGAS. THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE WITH THE GFS
FORECASTING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE... THE RESULT
WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND... BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE MEXICAN
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE... DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
SONORA INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NOGALES VICINITY EASTWARD...
WHERE SOME INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH POOR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES
EXPECTED. HOT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC DISCUSSION...EVANS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...FRANCIS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

AZZ019-029>034-041400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
200 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ035-041400-
COCHISE COUNTY-
200 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COCHISE COUNTY

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THIS
PERIOD... MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN SONORA EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

EVANS