Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 011916
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1215 PM MST THU SEP 1 2005

AZC019-011930-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-050901T1930Z/
PIMA AZ-
1215 PM MST THU SEP 1 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1230 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 1210 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRESNAL 
CANYON...OR ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF SELLS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. 
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BLOWING DUST...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALSO 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
FRESNAL CANYON...CHOULIC AND TOPOWA.

LAT...LON 3167 11181 3170 11160 3200 11157 3195 11182
      3182 11187

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SMR

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 011933
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1229 PM MST THU SEP 1 2005

AZC019-011939-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-050901T1930Z/
PIMA AZ-
1229 PM MST THU SEP 1 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 1230 PM MST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAD FALLEN UNDER 
SEVERE THREASHOLDS. THOUGH THIS STORM IS NO LONGER SEVERE...FREQUENT 
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3167 11181 3170 11160 3200 11157 3195 11182
      3182 11187

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SMR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST THU SEP 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO PUSH THE MOISTURE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN 35
DBZ ECHOES JUST S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ
AND COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1625Z. ISOLATED CELLS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
BISBEE AND W OF NOGALES. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES
AT THIS TIME. IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED EXTENSIVE
CLOUD MASS OVER CENTRAL-NERN SONORA WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS A SELLS-ORO VALLEY-
HANNAGAN MEADOW ARC.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED VORT MAX/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE
MOVING NWWD OVER WRN CHIHUAHUA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER NE SONORA/NW CHIHUAHUA. 01/12Z
KTUS SOUNDING DEPICTED INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
COLUMN VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE NEAR 1.25
INCHES. FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUE
NEAR MINUS 7 AND UNMODIFIED SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 1985 J/KG. THE
TEMPERATURE IN THE 600-450MB LAYER WAS ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C LOWER VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 40S NERN
SECTIONS...TO THE MID 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THESE VALUES
WERE NEARLY 2-4 DEGS LOWER VERSUS THIS TIME WED.

GIVEN THE ONGOING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO REFLECT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF ZONES 34/35. 01/12Z GFS INITIALIZED
THE WRN CHIHUAHUA VORT MAX/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE MUCH BETTER
VERSUS THE 01/12Z NAM. THUS THE GFS SOLUTION WAS ACCEPTED AND USED
AS THE BASIS FOR CHANGES MADE AS OF THIS WRITING TO THE INHERITED
POP AND WEATHER GRIDDED DATA FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN ESSENCE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS ABOUT 5 PERCENT OR SO FROM THE
TUCSON VICINITY EWD. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO INTRODUCE LOW-GRADE POPS
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
GIVEN THE PROSPECT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING VORT MAX AS
PER THE GFS SOLUTION.

OTHERWISE UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA OVER SRN NM AND/OR WEST TX REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST. UPPER HIGH THEN PROGGED
TO MIGRATE SWWD...EITHER OVER THIS FORECAST AREA OR JUST S OF THE
AREA...LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN DECREASED MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER IN THE
MEANTIME APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE AUGUST CLIMATE REPORT FOR TUCSON HAS BEEN RELEASED
AND CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT (ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS):
HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TWC/CLIMATE/MONTHLY/AUG05.PHP. AUGUST 2005
WILL GO INTO THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON