Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 070006
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
503 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

AZC019-070100-
PIMA AZ-
503 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM MST FOR EAST CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 503 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR SAHUARITA...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF GREEN 
VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BETWEEN 
1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES...HAS FALLEN ALONG A LINE FROM SAHUARITA TO THE 
INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 10 AND WILMOT ROADS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
RUNOFF WILL QUICKLY FILL INTO NORMALLY DRY WASHES...ROADWAY DIPS AND 
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH RUNNING WATER OF UNKNOWN 
DEPTH AND DO NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES. 

LAT...LON 3174 11108 3188 11075 3216 11069 3216 11104 3197 11106

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 070058
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
558 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

AZC019-070108-
PIMA AZ-
558 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EXPIRES AT
600 PM MST...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN INTO NORMALLY DRY WASHES...ROADWAY 
DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS 
SUBSIDED. HOWEVER...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID CROSSING THROUGH 
ROADWAY DIPS FILLED WITH RUNNING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 


LAT...LON 3174 11108 3188 11075 3216 11069 3216 11104

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...
DRY AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AT
2155Z. OTHER ISOLATED AND WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER EXTREME SE
COCHISE COUNTY. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. 06/12Z
NAM/ETA PRECIP FIELDS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH ONGOING
ACTIVITY. THUS GIVEN RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL SOLUTION WILL
OPT FOR SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES
WITH ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS TUCSON VICINITY NEWD. MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS PROGGED SE OF AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.
THUS HAVE OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.

CHANGES OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 06/12Z GFS DEPICTED A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 2-3 GFS
SOLUTIONS. PER COORD WITH WFO/S PSR AND FGZ NOW APPEARS THAT THE
MAIN IMPACT ON SE AZ WEATHER WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY SAT NIGHT...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUCSON VICINITY EWD
SUN. BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NERN SECTIONS
AS UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER COLORADO.

GIVEN THE FARTHER NE PATH OF SYSTEM GFS INDICATED MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BY MON. THUS OPTED TO TRIM POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY NERN
SECTIONS ON MON. COOLEST DAY NOW EXPECTED TO BE ON MON AS WELL. DRY
AREAWIDE MON NIGHT-THUR WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON