Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 062241
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

AZC023-062345-
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
335 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR CENTRAL SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 312 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING OF HOMES 
IN THE RIO RICO VILLAS NEAR THE AGUA FRIA AND PECK CANYON WASHES. 
RADAR ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN OVER THIS 
AREA FROM A PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM. RADAR ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
MUCH WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO RICO AREA PRODUCING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE RAINFALL.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF 
FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3136 11111 3135 11084 3154 11058 3173 11075
      3172 11112

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 062342
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
441 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

AZC023-062351-
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
441 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY EXPIRES AT
445 PM MST...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO NORMALLY DRY WASHES...ROADWAY 
DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS 
SUBSIDED. HOWEVER...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID CROSSING THROUGH 
ROADWAY DIPS FILLED WITH RUNNING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

LAT...LON 3136 11111 3135 11084 3154 11058 3173 11075
      3172 11112

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST THU OCT 6 2005

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...
DRY AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AT
2155Z. OTHER ISOLATED AND WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER EXTREME SE
COCHISE COUNTY. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. 06/12Z
NAM/ETA PRECIP FIELDS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE WITH ONGOING
ACTIVITY. THUS GIVEN RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL SOLUTION WILL
OPT FOR SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES
WITH ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS TUCSON VICINITY NEWD. MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS PROGGED SE OF AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.
THUS HAVE OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.

CHANGES OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 06/12Z GFS DEPICTED A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 2-3 GFS
SOLUTIONS. PER COORD WITH WFO/S PSR AND FGZ NOW APPEARS THAT THE
MAIN IMPACT ON SE AZ WEATHER WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY SAT NIGHT...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUCSON VICINITY EWD
SUN. BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NERN SECTIONS
AS UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER COLORADO.

GIVEN THE FARTHER NE PATH OF SYSTEM GFS INDICATED MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BY MON. THUS OPTED TO TRIM POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY NERN
SECTIONS ON MON. COOLEST DAY NOW EXPECTED TO BE ON MON AS WELL. DRY
AREAWIDE MON NIGHT-THUR WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON