Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 072144
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

AZC019-072300-
PIMA AZ-
238 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR EAST CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 238 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. OTHER 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ARE 
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL TUCSON TO THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS.

AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES REPORTED THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED A 
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN ONLY 15 MINUTES IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE 
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA...VAIL AND 
RYAN FIELD. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF NORMALLY 
DRY WASHES...ROADWAY DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE 
INTO FLOODED AREAS OR AROUND BARRICADES. IF THE ROAD AHEAD IS 
FLOODED...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM 
MST THIS EVENING.

LAT...LON 3197 11121 3194 11046 3234 11046 3237 11120

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 072159
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

AZC019-072300-
PIMA AZ-
253 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR EAST CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 245 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED OVER TUCSON...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...NEAR 2 TO 3 
INCHES AN HOUR. THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA CAMPUS HAS RECORDED 0.75 
INCHES IN ONLY 20 MINUTES.  

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE 
ENTIRE TUCSON METRO AREA...VAIL AND RYAN FIELD. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF NORMALLY 
DRY WASHES...ROADWAY DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE 
INTO FLOODED AREAS OR AROUND BARRICADES. IF THE ROAD AHEAD IS 
FLOODED...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM 
MST.

LAT...LON 3203 11138 3201 11048 3234 11046 3240 11130

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 072208
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
301 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

AZC019-072300-
PIMA AZ-
301 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR EAST CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 301 PM MST...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
REPORTED.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TUCSON...MOVING WEST AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...NEAR 2 TO 3 
INCHES AN HOUR. THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA CAMPUS HAS RECORDED 1.21 
INCHES IN ONLY 30 MINUTES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MANY IMPASSABLE 
ROADWAYS ACROSS THE CITY OF TUCSON AND RAPID FLASH FLOODING OF MOST 
WASHES. RAPID RUNOFF WILL ALSO PICK UP SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEBRIS 
AND BRING THEM INTO SURFACE ROADWAYS.  

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE 
ENTIRE TUCSON METRO AREA...VAIL AND RYAN FIELD. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF NORMALLY 
DRY WASHES...ROADWAY DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS TO FLOOD. DO NOT 
DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS OR AROUND BARRICADES. IF THE ROAD AHEAD IS 
FLOODED...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM 
MST.

LAT...LON 3203 11138 3201 11048 3234 11046 3240 11130

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 072218
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
312 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

AZC019-072300-
PIMA AZ-
312 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR EAST CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY...

AT 312 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND 
WESTERN TUCSON...AS WELL AS 5 MILES NORTH OF THREE POINTS. THESE 
STORMS WERE MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURED ALONG A LINE FROM SAGUARO NATIONAL 
PARK EAST...TO DAVIS MONTHAN AIR FORCE BASE...TO SOUTH TUCSON...TO 
DOWNTOWN TUCSON SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK WEST. RADAR INDICATED A BROAD 
AREA OF ONE INCH OF RAIN ALONG THIS LINE WITH POCKETS OF 1.50 TO 
2.00 INCHES.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...NEAR 2 TO 3 
INCHES AN HOUR. THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA CAMPUS HAS RECORDED 1.44 
INCHES IN ONLY 45 MINUTES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MANY IMPASSABLE 
ROADWAYS ACROSS THE CITY OF TUCSON AND RAPID FLASH FLOODING OF MOST 
WASHES. RAPID RUNOFF WILL ALSO PICK UP SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEBRIS 
AND BRING THEM INTO SURFACE ROADWAYS.  

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE 
ENTIRE TUCSON METRO AREA...VAIL AND RYAN FIELD. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF NORMALLY 
DRY WASHES...ROADWAY DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS TO FLOOD. DO NOT 
DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS OR AROUND BARRICADES. IF THE ROAD AHEAD IS 
FLOODED...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM 
MST.

LAT...LON 3203 11138 3201 11048 3234 11046 3240 11130

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS WEEK AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS OVER FAR WRN AND NERN SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE WHICH WERE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
07/12Z KTUS SOUNDING REFLECTED A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUE NEAR 1.60 INCHES.

SOUNDING ALSO REPRESENTED AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUE NEAR MINUS 8 AND UNMODIFIED SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF
3025 J/KG. GENERALLY LIGHT ELY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
ANALYSES OF 07/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NERN NV AND ERN NM/W TX. LIGHT ELY/SELY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SRN
AZ.

GIVEN THE ABOVE DIAGNOSTICS AND QUICK INSPECTION OF 07/12Z NAM
SOLUTION...APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SELY TOWARD MIDWEEK WHICH WOULD
SERVE TO DEEPEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

07/06Z GFS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONSOLODATE AND MOVE
EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH A WEAK
TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST. SOME DRYING INDICATED ACROSS FAR SW
AZ INTO NW SONORA. HOWEVER AM NOT INCLINED TO BUY INTO ANY SEMBLANCE
OF DRYING FOR THIS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEAONAL NORMALS MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS. CUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED VICINITY KTUS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 7K FT AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO NEAR 5SM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM TSRA.
IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS AFTER ABOUT 08/02Z.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1025 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

AZZ019-029>035-081400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1025 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A LINE FROM SIERRA VISTA TO CLIFTON. STORMS WILL THEN PUSH
WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE VALLEYS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FAR WESTERN DESERTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHERE SATURATED SOILS WILL CAUSE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RAPIDLY RUNOFF INTO WASHES ALREADY OCCUPIED
BY PONDED OR RUNNING WATER.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-10 PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH A BROAD
MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SIERRA VISTA TO CLIFTON.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CAN BEE SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...EXTENDING FROM THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEW
MEXICO...INTO NORTH CENTRAL SONORA MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH
WEST TODAY AS IT SLOWLY ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. THE UPPER HIGH...CENTERED NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
ARIZONA TODAY WILL CHANGE FROM A NEUTRAL ORIENTATION INTO A MORE
ELONGATED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION. AS THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

THE INCREASED LIFT RESULTING FROM THE SLOWLY APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM SIERRA VISTA TO CLIFTON.

THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM TUCSON INDICATED A WEAK STEERING
FLOW FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS. THIS RATHER WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND RESULTING WEAK SHEAR BOTH SUGGEST THAT PULSE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHING ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME MORE
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE AFORE MENTIONED MOISTURE
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO PUSH OFF
THE MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO
THE VALLEYS BY MID AFTERNOON AND FAR WESTERN DESERTS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ACROSS THE TOHONO OODHAM
NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
THE SOILS ARE WELL SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.