Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 030339
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
835 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZC019-030515-
PIMA AZ-
835 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1015 PM MST FOR CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY...

AT 833 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PIMA 
COUNTY...IN THE SANTA ROSA AND QUIJOTOA AREAS. RADAR RAINFALL 
ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE WARNING 
AREA. THIS RAINFALL WILL IMPACT LOW WATER CROSSINGS ALONG STATE 
HIGHWAY 86...AS WELL AS ROUTE 15. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM MST.  

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO QUEENS WELL. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3217 11235 3197 11209 3212 11143 3243 11173
      3234 11204

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
112 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA IN A MONSOON FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL BE DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATIONS...BUT IN GENERAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ENOUGH
FOR A DAILY BOUT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM WISE TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. SO FAR...RADAR HAS
BEEN SHOWING MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SANTA
CRUZ...COCHISE...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. THE STEERING FLOW WAS FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING WESTWARD THIS EVENING OFF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN LONGER
LIVING MULTICELL STORMS...SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO MEXICO THIS
EVENING. IF THIS HAPPENS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WAS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD POSSIBLY ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN HIGH RH
VALUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
AREAS...WHERE SOME TEMPORARY DRYING (ALBEIT SLIGHT) HAS TAKEN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. A FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AFTER TODAY.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.CLIMATE.....JULY HIGHLIGHTS...
...ALL-TIME WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD...
...WARMEST AND 11TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD...
...2ND LATEST START TO THE ANNUAL MONSOON...
...LONGEST STRETCH WITH HIGHS OF 100 DEGREES OR GREATER...
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1215 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZZ019-029>035-031900-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1215 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM THE WESTERN
DESERTS TO THE CHIRICAHUAS. LESS CLOUDINESS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN
MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE STRONGLY HEATED LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...15-25 KT OF EASTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW FLOWING BELOW FOUR CORNERS HIGH MAY INCREASE THREAT
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES INDICATE GENERALLY PULSE CELLS BUT A FEW MULTICELLULAR
STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS. AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT...WITH ELEVATED CONCERNS OVER SANTA CRUZ AND PIMA
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SHOEMAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
544 PM MST TUE AUG 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WIND DMG    8 SSW ORO VALLEY        32.32N 111.03W
08/02/2005                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            20-FOOT TALL/8-INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN ON AVRA
            VALLEY ROAD 1/2 MILE WEST OF CLAYTON ROAD IN MARANA

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
702 PM MST TUE AUG 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      25 SW BYLAS             32.87N 110.41W
08/02/2005                   GRAHAM             AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ARAVAPIA AND ASH CREEK ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED IN
            KLONDYKE.

&&

BF