Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 052116
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

OKC037-052126-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-050405T2130Z/
CREEK OK-
416 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CREEK COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3610 9629 3568 9622 3587 9603 3608 9604

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY SOUTH TO THE
RED RIVER.

BACKED MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE PROMOTING CELL-TO-CELL INTERACTIONS SO A
LINE HAS QUICKLY EVOLVED...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  WE CONTINUE TO
NOTE AREAS OF BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SMALL ANTICYCLONIC AND
CYCLONIC MESOCYCLONES.  SPOTTERS SHOULD NOTE THAT STORM STRUCTURES
WILL VARY MARKEDLY BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC AND ANTICYCLONIC UPDRAFTS
AND THEY NEED TO POSITION ACCORDINGLY.  SLIGHTLY LESS BACKED
MID-LEVEL FLOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOMEWHAT MORE PROLONGED DISCRETE SUPECELLS AND IN
TURN HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.

WE ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ELEVATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR
THE AREA FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTH TO THE KANSAS BORDER.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

AR...TORNADO WATCH SEBASTIAN COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
UNTIL 9 PM.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
330 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 9 PM...
...TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
UNTIL 9 PM...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA....SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
        ONSET....AFTER 300 PM.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 300 PM.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
        NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREAD INDEX=60.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE MOVING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE QUICKLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE...AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

ARZ029-OKZ049-053-073>076-060200-
SEBASTIAN AR-CHOCTAW OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 125 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HUGO...STIGLER...FORT SMITH...
MCALESTER...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...POTEAU AND WILBURTON

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-OKZ054>072-060200-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-
CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-
PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
124 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

FRANKLIN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

MCINTOSH

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...CHECOTAH...
EUFAULA...CLAREMORE...CATOOSA...SALLISAW...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
JAY...PAWHUSKA...TAHLEQUAH...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...
CHOUTEAU...MUSKOGEE...STILWELL...MARIETTA...WESTVILLE...
BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...TULSA...WAGONER...COWETA...
VAN BUREN...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...OKMULGEE...HENRYETTA...
PAWNEE...MIAMI...HUNTSVILLE...VINITA AND SAPULPA