Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
845 PM CST SUN JAN 2 2005

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A MIAMI...TULSA...BRISTOW...SHAWNEE
LINE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.  WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
VICINITY OF TULSA HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVEMENT
FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND CURRENTLY FAVOR THE FRONT MAKING IT NEAR A
JAY...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA LINE BY MORNING.  THE CLOSEST MODEL TO THIS
SOLUTION IS THE RUC...WITH THE LATEST ETA RUN CONTINUING A SLOW BIAS
WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION.  HIGH PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXPAND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ADVANCING NORTH OUT OF TEXAS.  PREDOMINANT
RAIN WITH TOKEN CHANCE OF THUNDER ALSO LOOKS GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT.

CONSIDERING HOW TEMPS BEHAVED NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...CHOSE TO LOWER HIGHS AND SHARPEN THE GRADIENT FURTHER
FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING AS THE VERY
SHALLOW AIRMASS ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN OK/NW
ARKANSAS.  THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND WHEN DEALING WITH THESE
SHALLOW AIRMASSES...WITH LATER FORECASTS CONTINUING TO REFINE
TEMP/PRECIP TRENDS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    42   47   40   49 / 100   80   80   80
FSM    62   67   61   67 / 100   90   80   80
MLC    62   67   61   67 / 100   80   80   80
BVO    38   42   36   40 / 100   80   80   80
FYV    59   64   58   62 / 100   90   80   80
BYV    59   64   58   61 / 100   90   80   80
MKO    60   65   59   62 / 100   80   80   80
MIO    46   50   44   43 / 100   80   80   80
F10    57   62   56   62 / 100   80   80   80
HHW    62   67   61   66 / 100   80   80   80

FORECAST ID= 07

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CST SUN JAN 2 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1230 PM CST SUN JAN 2 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MAINLY OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONGER PUSH
OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST FOR LATER TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY DIPPING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
WINTRY WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION