Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

.UPDATE...
TRUE COLD FRONT STILL LAGGING WELL TO OUR N ACROSS NRN KS...ALTHOUGH
SRN KS CONVECTION HAS DRIVEN SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO NE OK.
STRONGEST OUTFLOW IS ANALYZED FROM OTTAWA COUNTY WWD THRU CNTRL
OSAGE COUNTY...AND HAVE SEEN A FEW RECENT UPDRAFTS ALONG AND JUST N
OF THIS BOUNDARY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO DELAY SWD PUSH/DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR IS RATHER ANEMIC AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE POISED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID = 18
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID = 17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING...BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE AFTER 3-4 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PAWNEE COUNTY...ACROSS TULSA COUNTY AND INTO
FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN SURFACE BASED CAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.

WEAK SHEAR ALOFT AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A
FEW CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MID-AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TULSA COUNTY IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE MID 70S.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THUS LEAVING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK DRY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

ARZ001-201830-
BENTON AR-
1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON

AT 1244 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF GRAVETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILLER...SULPHUR
SPRINGS...GRAVETTE AND HIWASSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
131 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

OKZ054-059-201915-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
131 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 131 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RALSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FAIRFAX AND RALSTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
136 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

ARZ001-201930-
BENTON AR-
136 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON

AT 136 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHEROKEE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILLER...BENTONVILLE...
ROGERS...GENTRY...GRAVETTE...PEA RIDGE...SPRINGTOWN...MONTE NE...
CHEROKEE CITY...VAUGHN...DECATUR...CENTERTON...AVOCA...HIWASSE AND
BELLA VISTA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
156 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

OKZ061-062-067-201945-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
156 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ROGERS...MAYES AND WAGONER

AT 156 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF INOLA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...INOLA...PRYOR...MAZIE...
MURPHY...CHOUTEAU AND LOCUST GROVE.

PORTIONS OF ROGERS...MAYES AND WAGONER COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS THROUGH 245 PM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
233 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

ARZ001-010-OKZ068-069-202030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-WASHINGTON AR-
233 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND WASHINGTON

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 233 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NEAR SCRAPER IN NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY EXTENDING TO 10 MILES NORTH
OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.  THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF BENTON...WASHINGTON...CHEROKEE AND ADAIR COUNTIES
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 330 PM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

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