Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AT 5PM PROFILERS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AREA
THE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MORE OF MULTI-CLUSTER / SHORT LINE MODE.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL
STORM ROTATION POTENTIAL...STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
GENERALLY 50 M2/S2 OR LESS WITH THE CURRENT MOTIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL GUST POTENTIAL GRIDS SHOW A HIGH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH MODERATE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE.
THEREFORE WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

THE CAP INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP IS NOT COMPLETELY GONE...
JUST THIN ENOUGH TO BE BROKEN.  AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH
LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND DIURNAL COOLING STARTS THE
ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME BY MID EVENING...UNLESS
A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZED AND PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141130-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
623 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO STROUD AND NORTH OF
                A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO ST. PAUL.
	ONSET...NOW...ENDING BY 11PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...NOW...ENDING BY 1AM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO STROUD
                 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO ST.PAUL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  A FEW OF THE CELLS WILL BE SEVERE.  WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL MODE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  ELSEWHERE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MIXED
MODE OF MOSTLY MULTI-CELL LINES OR CLUSTERS...WITH AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
POSSIBLE.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DOWNBURSTS WILL
EXIST THIS EVENING.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGING TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING
AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WOULD
BE IF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP.  WE WILL MONITOR
FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL RETURN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
209 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             10 W HOMINY             36.41N 96.57W
06/12/2005  0.75 INCH        OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CATOOSA                 36.19N 95.75W
06/12/2005                   ROGERS             OK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LARGE TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

ARZ001-132345-
BENTON AR-
540 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON

AT 540 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTH OF SILOAM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT HILL...ROCKY
COMFORT...FAIRMOUNT...BLAND...MILLER...HILL TOP...BENTONVILLE...
SILOAM SPRINGS...ROGERS...LOWELL...GENTRY...GRAVETTE...PEA RIDGE...
LAKE FRANCIS...GALLITIN...HEALING SPRINGS...SPRINGTOWN...HIGHFILL...
CAVE SPRINGS...MONTE NE...CHEROKEE CITY...VAUGHN...LARUE...DECATUR...
CENTERTON...AVOCA...HIWASSE...BELLA VISTA...GARFIELD AND BEAVER LAKE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             3 NE PRYOR              36.34N 95.28W
06/13/2005  1.00 INCH        MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS