Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 050146
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKC105-050230-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-050605T0230Z/
NOWATA OK-
846 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NOWATA COUNTY...

AT 844 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER NOWATA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3690 9573 3682 9544 3697 9540 3700 9562

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 050208
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKC105-050218-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-050605T0230Z/
NOWATA OK-
908 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NOWATA COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3690 9573 3682 9544 3697 9540 3700 9562

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
801 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE LATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS OF A MIXED MODE OF CONVECTION...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN
MULTI-CELL CONVECTION.  SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z
IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT IT LIKLELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
OF A CHANGE TO REVERSE THE CURRENT PROCESS.  NEARLY ALL OF THE 2500
J/KG OF CAPE IN THE AREA NOW IS ABOVE 500 MB AND THIS IS LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ACCELERATION.  YET ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR LONGER
LIVED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IS THE LIMITED STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
GIVEN THE OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS...GENERALLY 50 TO 100 M2/S2.  STORM
MOTIONS OF A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WOULD MORE THAN TRIPLE THE
SR-HELICITY.

OVERALL LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE OF LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
GIVEN THE NEGATIVES NOTED ABOVE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE AN EVOLUTION
TO AN ELEVATED LINE OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TO WIND AND HAIL...BUT SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL REMAINS GIVEN ANY RIGHT TURN OF A CELL WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE ITS HELICITY AS NOTED ABOVE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
420 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  TORNADO WATCH 393 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  A DRY
LINE HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.  INITIAL
CONVECTION WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH.  AT THAT RATE...AND IF THE
CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF...IT COULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CREEK OR OKFUSKEE COUNTIES BY AROUND 7 PM.

THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 TO 4000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM.  BULK RICHARDSON VALUES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WELL ABOVE 50 THIS EVENING...TENDING THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE
VALUES AND A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT AROUND 10,000 FEET.  HOWEVER...
SUPERCELLS AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM WESTERN OSAGE TO WESTERN
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES BY AROUND 6 PM.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST BY MID EVENING...AS THE ANTICIPATED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...WILL
COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
332 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKZ054-059-064>065-050400-
CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OSAGE-PAWNEE-
332 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 393 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

OKFUSKEE...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CREEK... OSAGE... PAWNEE...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PAWHUSKA...OKEMAH...
PAWNEE AND BRISTOW.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKZ060-050145-
TULSA OK-
814 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA

AT 814 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTH OF GLENPOOL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEONARD...BIXBY...GLENPOOL
AND BROKEN ARROW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
819 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

OKZ056-050200-
NOWATA OK-
819 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA

AT 819 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
WEST OF NOWATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE AND LENAPAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.