Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 221925
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

ARC007-221935-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-050522T2000Z/
BENTON AR-
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BENTON COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF BENTON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3614 9444 3612 9418 3590 9404 3586 9421

$$

ARC143-222000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-050522T2000Z/
WASHINGTON AR-
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 224 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 3 MILES WEST OF SAVOY TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENLAND...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT GROVE...
WEST FORK AND WOOLSEY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3614 9444 3612 9418 3590 9404 3586 9421

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 221951
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

ARC143-222001-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-050522T2000Z/
WASHINGTON AR-
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3614 9444 3612 9418 3590 9404 3586 9421

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL ONGOING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO WILL NEED TO LEAVE LOW POPS IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH
NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS
SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED AND TEMPERATURES THIS FAR EAST WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. HOWEVER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS
SHOWN BY THE NAM APPEAR OVERDONE SO CAPE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS
LARGE AS THE NAM SUGGESTS BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT OVERLY HIGH DUE TO HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THUS HIGH LCLS BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE INITIAL STORMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL AID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE
ELEVATED STORMS MAY MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING EARLY MONDAY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS SOME TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE BUT DID NUDGE SOME READINGS UP
A DEGREE OR SO.

UPDATE COMING MOMENTARILY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

FORECASTER ID= 5

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
123 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-230630-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
123 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
        ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OF A EUFAULA TO TALIHINA LINE.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
                                ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY
SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A MINIMAL THREAT OF
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS ZONE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
YIELDING CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM. WIND
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. HIGH
LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A CAPPING
INVERSION PRESENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AROUND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
POTENTIAL ACTIVATION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

ARZ001-010-221930-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND WASHINGTON

AT 203 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMOUNT TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARMINGTON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WALNUT GROVE...ROCKY COMFORT...FAIRMOUNT...
SHADY GROVE...TUTTLE...MAYFIELD...HARMON...SILOAM SPRINGS...LOWELL...
GENTRY...GALLITIN...HEALING SPRINGS...SPRINGTOWN...HIGHFILL...CAVE
SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...ELKINS...FARMINGTON...RHEA...
VINEY GROVE...WEDINGTON...SAVOY...GOSHEN...WHEELER...JOHNSON...
SONORA...TONTITOWN AND ELM SPRINGS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.