Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITH QUICK
WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION...LEAVING FIRST PERIOD POPS A LAST MINUTE
CALL CONCERNING MORNING CONVECTION. SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH A HEALTHY CAP. LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS FOR EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT CONVECTION...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
STORMS DEVELOPING WILL KEEP RISK LIMITED.

THE NEXT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST DURING THE EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DELAYED
EJECTION OF THIS SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO
DELAY ONSET OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ITS ADVANCE. FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND BEING NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN FRONTAL
ZONE ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL HEIGHTEN THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. WIDE RANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THIS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOUDY AND COLD NORTH AND A BRIEF WARM UP SOUTH
BEFORE FRONT MAKES THE FINAL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNUSUAL YET POSSIBLE FOR STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN WRAP AROUND PRECIP BEHIND DEPARTING LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LATE SEASON PATCHY FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  50  59  37 /  20  50  60  10
FSM   83  58  75  41 /  20  40  50  10
MLC   84  57  67  38 /  10  30  20  10
BVO   69  48  55  33 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   74  52  62  34 /  30  60  60  10
BYV   73  50  57  38 /  60  60  80  20
MKO   79  54  67  37 /  20  40  50  10
MIO   70  47  55  34 /  50  60  80  10
F10   79  54  61  38 /  10  40  30  10
HHW   85  64  77  42 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 12
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT WED APR 27 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1140 PM CDT WED APR 27 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MAINLY NORTH
        OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
JET. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD 6 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS EVENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
AND A WELL DEFINED DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
MONDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE SPOTTERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

ARZ010-011-280930-
MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     MADISON AND WASHINGTON

AT 356 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SAVOY TO WEST FORK TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WINSLOW...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

OKZ067-068-280930-
CHEROKEE OK-WAGONER OK-
359 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

AT 359 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTH OF PORTER...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAHLEQUAH...HULBERT...LOST CITY...
PEGGS...WAGONER...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...OKAY AND REDBIRD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

OKZ062-280945-
MAYES OK-
412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES

AT 412 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PRYOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PRYOR...SALINA...SPAVINAW...
STRANG...ADAIR AND PENSACOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
422 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

OKZ063-280945-
DELAWARE OK-
422 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE

AT 422 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 27
MILES EAST OF JAY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAY...CHLOETA...ZENA...GROVE AND
DISNEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

ARZ001-281015-
BENTON AR-
437 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON

AT 437 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES WEST OF GRAVETTE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT HILL...BLAND...
MILLER...HILL TOP...BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
GRAVETTE...PEA RIDGE...MONTE NE...LOOKOUT...VAUGHN...LARUE...
DECATUR...CENTERTON...AVOCA...HIWASSE...BELLA VISTA...GARFIELD AND
BEAVER LAKE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

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