Heat Advisory 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHWEST LATIMER COUNTY HAS BECOME
A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM.  THE CELL HAS DEVELOPED A
PERSISTENT LOW AND MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE...WHICH HAS IN TURN
HELPED TO FORCE A VERY STRONG UPDRAFT.  THIS ALL SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL...A TRIPLE
BODY SCATTER SPIKE HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CELL.

THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 8
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 1

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
345 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA ONE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.
        AREA TWO...WEST AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA.
        ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

DISCUSSION...
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PITTSBURG
LATIMER AND LE FLORE COUNTIES WAS THE FOCUS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AT
LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS CONVECTION WILL ENABLE SLOW MOVING PULSE
SEVERE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THE TULSA FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST THIS EVENING THEY WILL BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.  NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE TULSA FORECAST AREA ARE THE
MOST VULNERABLE.

FORECAST WIND POTENTIAL INDICES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM WINDS UP TO 70
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE AREA OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER
OVERNIGHT.  THIS SAME AREA HAS EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINS
RECENTLY...AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
FLOOD FLOOD RISK.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN IN AND NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.