Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PRECIP THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP AROUND ALMA AND WAMEGO THIS
MORNING...AND SATELLITE SHOWS A BROADER AREA OF ALTOCU STRETCHING UP
TO CNK WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER CENTRAL KS. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...WHILE
WATER VAPOR INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL KS. BELIEVE THE
ACTIVITY HAS NOT INCREASED IN COVERAGE DUE TO A GENERAL LACK OF MESO
SCALE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK WAVE BEING THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS...
THINK PRECIP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS MORNING.

MODELS SHOW A GENERAL AMPLIFICATION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE WEAK
VORT MAX WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
GFS EVEN SHOWS ISOLATED PRECIP REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN KS WITH AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
KS. THE ONE NEGATIVE FOR ADDING POPS IS THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION
OF STRONG WAA OR ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE MODELS AGAIN...SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK
VORTICITY.

WITH THE LEE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE EACH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND COULD BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MONDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP SOME AND
ADDED GUSTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
CONSIDERED ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SUNDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD WARM DECREASING
LAPSE RATES WHILE THE WEAK VORTICITY DISSIPATES. THE BETTER WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID A BOUNDARY TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST NORTH FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH WITH
THE BOUNDARY...CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMS
REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
501 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-041015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
501 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
217 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 AM     HAIL             ALMA                    39.02N 96.29W
09/03/2005  0.75 INCH        WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ROGERS