Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVED NORTH. STORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE BEEN FIRING AHEAD OF MESO LOW AND WESTERN
KANSAS SHORTWAVE.

DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 180 TO 200 PERCENT RANGE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
AIRMASS HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH CAPES IN THE 3500 J/KG
RANGE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. 300 MB JET SETS UP TONIGHT WITH NORTHEAST KANSAS IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MENTION
HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES.

HAVE GONE WITH FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ORIENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG
AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HAVE DROPPED POPS NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK IN ADVANCE
OF A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INITIAL FRONT
STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN SOUTHEAST BUT
DRY IN THE NORTH AS FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING PROVIDING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY AS BETTER DRYING BACKDOORS INTO
THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO SETTLE INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW DOES SET UP...IT APPEARS TO AGGRESSIVE ON THE
GFS AND PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF VERSION WHICH WOULD BRING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES IN MORE TOWARDS THE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EDGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
ALL OF NORTHCENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL 10
PM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION
CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
THE MAIN HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREETS
AND UNDERPASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. THERE US A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             DWIGHT                  38.84N 96.59W
08/19/2005  1.00 INCH        MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HUDSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E BURDICK             38.56N 96.81W
08/19/2005  60 MPH           MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     HERINGTON               38.67N 96.94W
08/19/2005  70 MPH           DICKINSON          KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

ROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
717 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     HERINGTON               38.67N 96.95W
08/19/2005  70 MPH           DICKINSON          KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             2 N WILSEY              38.67N 96.68W
08/19/2005  0.88 INCH        MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
731 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             WILSEY                  38.64N 96.68W
08/19/2005  1.00 INCH        MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STRASSBERG