Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 292201
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
459 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSC157-201-292230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-050629T2230Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-
459 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTIES...

AT 457 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MUNDEN...OR ABOUT 23 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NARKA AND MAHASKA.

AT 455 PM...THE KANSAS HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A LARGE COMMERCIAL 
DUMPSTER BLOWN OVER ON THE EAST SIDE OF BELLEVILLE.

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3989 9772 3978 9761 4000 9716 4000 9736
      4000 9753

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 292221
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
519 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSC157-201-292230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-050629T2230Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-
519 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HADDAM...OR ABOUT 27 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL 
AREAS NEAR THE COMMUNITIES OF MAHASKA AND HADDAM IN NORTHWEST 
WASHINGTON COUNTY.

STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS STORM. TAKE COVER
INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

THE REPUBLIC COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED TWO FARM BUILDINGS DOWN NEAR 
MUNDEN AT 5 PM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3999 9748 3979 9735 4000 9713 4000 9736
      4000 9738

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 292227
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSC157-292237-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-050629T2230Z/
REPUBLIC-
527 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR REPUBLIC COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4000 9733 3983 9728 3999 9713 4000 9732
      4000 9732

$$

KSC201-292230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-050629T2230Z/
WASHINGTON-
527 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 30 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF CONCORDIA...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS STORM. TAKE COVER 
INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4000 9733 3983 9728 3999 9713 4000 9732
      4000 9732

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 292229
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
529 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSC201-292239-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-050629T2230Z/
WASHINGTON-
529 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 530 PM CDT...

AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4000 9733 3983 9728 3999 9713 4000 9732
      4000 9732

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE THAT SET OFF MORNING SHOWERS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
IS BEING QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER WAVE.  AT 18Z...H500 JET MAX
WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD EASTERN MINNESOTA.  THIS
MAX WILL LIFT NORTH BY 00Z WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.  THESE UPPER FEATURES WERE PRESENT OVER A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON.  WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING ON
SATELLITE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.  STORM
PROGRESSION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW WITH THE H500 JET ENTRANCE
REGION HOLDING ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING.  BY
MIDNIGHT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH FROM AROUND HIAWATHA TO
NEAR ABILENE WITH THE CENTER OF BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM AROUND
TOPEKA TO COUNCIL GROVE.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OF I-35 AT SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING NORTH TO AROUND
I-70.  WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH WARMEST
HIGHS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER WITH MORE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH
SECONDARY WAVE ON BACKSIDE OF H500 LOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CWA.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S...NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRIDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER CWA BEHIND FRONT...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWA. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP...HAVE LOW POPS FOR FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

FOR THE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD...LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  LEE
SIDE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING SETS UP.  WENT DRY FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEEPENING AND HINT OF WARM ADVECTION...HAVE ADDED SOME 20
PERCENT POPS TO CWA AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY GENERALLY
NORTH OF I70 WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.  HIGHS LOW TO MID 90S
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND LATEST GFS SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRAILING
BEHIND LEAD FEATURE.  WITH BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY AND PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING BY AT VARIOUS TIMES...HAVE OPTED TO PLACE
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY...AND CONCERNS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION AND SHORTWAVE TIMING...THOUGHT IT BEST TO HAVE SOME
MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY
WITH GFSLR INDICATING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS BY 00Z WED
AND LARGE QPF FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS.  KEEPING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW TO GET SOME CONTINUITY WITH LATER
RUNS.  SAME GFS RUN WOULD HAVE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS GENERALLY FROM AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S SOUTH FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DR/PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-301000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
406 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMING SCATTERED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST...ACROSS
NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.  AREAS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GREATER THAN 60 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE AREAS.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
INDEPENDENCE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)