Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 110204
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
903 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

KSC031-111-139-197-110213-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-050611T0230Z/
WABAUNSEE-OSAGE-LYON-COFFEY-
903 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COFFEY...LYON...OSAGE AND
SOUTHERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 903 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY 
WINDS...POSSIBLY TO 45 MPH...WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE 
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3818 9636 3808 9554 3884 9551 3888 9593
      3899 9644 3866 9635

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TONIGHT
AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TOP CWA.  CLOUDS HAVE PUT A
DAMPER ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS ONLY A FEW LOCALES WILL SEE
GLIMPSES OF SUN.  THESE CLOUDS WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER.  LATEST RUN OF THE NAM BRINGS WAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
THE GFS SWINGS IT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.  WILL TREND TOWARDS A NAM
SOLUTION WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TOP CWA BUT MORE LIKELY
ANOTHER FLOODING PROBLEM OVERNIGHT.  SPC DAY ONE HAS MODERATE RISK
FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

WITH THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...ANY ORGANIZED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL WATER
PROBLEMS.  FFG VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW IN THE .6 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH GOING.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT DRY LINE SETS UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
TEXAS PANHANDLE. OTHER BOUNDARIES MAY BE PRESENT FROM MORNING
CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A CLUSTER AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO POP FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATAL WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS A
WAVE/TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. MAY BE FLOODING PROBLEMS ONCE AGAIN OR
ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED ANOTHER WATCH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY HAVE GONE
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN DRY THEREAFTER. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP FROM MINNESOTA TO EASTERN
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR LOWS AND MID 80S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM SATURDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO DAY ONE TIME PERIOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING
FLOODING WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A HAZARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CREEK AND RIVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER HAZARD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

KSZ037-054>056-058-059-110500-
ANDERSON-COFFEY-FRANKLIN-LYON-MORRIS-OSAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EMPORIA AND OTTAWA
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 455 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

MORRIS                OSAGE                 LYON
FRANKLIN              COFFEY                ANDERSON

SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH ARE...

EMPORIA               OTTAWA

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.