Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 090133
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
830 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSC111-127-197-090200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-050609T0200Z/
WABAUNSEE-MORRIS-LYON-
830 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LYON...MORRIS AND SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILSEY TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BUSHONG...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF JUNCTION
CITY TO 27 MILES NORTH OF EMPORIA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM...QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A TRAINED 
SPOTTER JUST EAST OF ALTA VISTA IN SOUTHWEST WABAUNSEE COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILSEY...VOLLAND...ALTA VISTA...DWIGHT...WHITE CITY...PARKERVILLE AND
LATIMER.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES RAPIDLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3875 9686 3886 9661 3886 9650 3892 9648
      3904 9621 3874 9614 3853 9634 3852 9643
      3852 9681 3852 9681

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAIN
CONCERNS.

SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND THETA E RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT OUR AREA. LOW
LVL INFLOW NOT ALL THAT HIGH...AND NAM SEEMS UNREASONABLY HIGH WITH
QPF. HOWEVER BACKBUILDING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH STRONGER
STORMS SEEMS LIKELY...AND WITH EXPECTED RAINS NEAR OR EXCEEDING
INDEX VALUES...A FLOOD WATCH SEEMS PRUDENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY
HAVE ACTUALLY TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION...FIRST WITH BACKBUILDING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...THEN, DEPENDING ON OUTFLOWS
FROM THIS CONVECTION...MORE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. RUC SHOWS SRN END OF NORTHEAST EJECTING WAVE
PASSING NEAR AREA LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER, FURTHER NORTH IN CWA, AS
LOW LVL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE. LOWS TONIGHT LITTLE
CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...AND WINDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ANYONES GUESS...BUT TRIED TO TREND TOWARD A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALL
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

LONGER TERM...LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.  OF COURSE THIS MEANS SEASONALLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONDAY WITH STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY.  GIVEN THIS...EXPECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  TIMING OF OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES COMING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS
DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SHOWN BY
GFS...HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER SHEAR MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
HIGHER THREAT FOR SIG SEVERE.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN IN DIFFERENT WAYS...BUT ALL WOULD INDICATE THAT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL SETUP AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO HOLTON FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY.

&&

SK/GP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-091012-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
525 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.  WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO
MARYSVILLE.  ADDITIONALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO
HOLTON.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH FLOODING RAINS BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...AND CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...SEVERAL BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
738 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             5 E HOYT                39.25N 95.61W
06/08/2005  1.00 INCH        JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DENNIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
739 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SSE COUNCIL GROVE    38.53N 96.42W
06/08/2005  60 MPH           MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BUSHONG           38.59N 96.23W
06/08/2005  1.00 INCH        LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DENNIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
747 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             2 SW VALLEY FALLS       39.32N 95.49W
06/08/2005  1.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DENNIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
804 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             6 E ALTA VISTA          38.86N 96.38W
06/08/2005  1.00 INCH        WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DENNIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
808 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E OTTAWA              38.62N 95.25W
06/08/2005  65 MPH           FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DENNIS