Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEAK FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER AL WEAKENS BUT MOVES LITTLE
WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE AREA ASSOC WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER AL DISSIPATES. A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND HELP SPARK A COUPLE OF COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED THE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
ABOUT 10 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM SARASOTA NORTHWARD STARTING
AROUND 5AM SUN MORNING. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT AND
BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS REACHING TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY TO
THE MID 90S INLAND. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH
NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. EXACT PLACEMENT OF AXIS SHIFTS FROM MODEL TO MODEL RUN...
BUT IN GENERAL IT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICAL SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE SEA/LAKE BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL
BRING LIGHT GENERALLY S/SW FLOW WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEABREEZE TAKES OVER. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THESE
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 90 76 91 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 75 92 75 92 / 30 50 30 40
GIF 75 92 75 93 / 30 50 30 40
SRQ 75 90 75 91 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 71 90 72 91 / 20 50 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....PRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
428 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-061424-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
428 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO THE LOWER 100S. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...
BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.
RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY
NEAR AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE 100
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
450 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

FLZ052-062130-
POLK-
450 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST POLK COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT BARTOW AND
FORT MEADE...UNTIL 530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RKR