Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
128 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...12Z NAM/ETA HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANY GULF BREEZE THAT DOES DEVELOP GETS
PINNED TO THE COAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION...HAD HIGHEST POPS IN THE INTERIOR WITH LOWER POPS
ALONG THE COAST. IN FACT THE LATEST 12Z GFS SOLUTION...AS WELL
AS EARLIER ETA/NAM RUNS...SUPPORT THE INLAND SCENARIO. ITS PROBABLY
NOT PRUDENT AT THIS TIME TO MAKE VERY LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FOR NOW...WILL BRING 40 POPS BACK TO THE COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL BE A GOOD TRANSITION IF WE END UP HAVING
TO RAMP UP COASTAL POPS IN THE FRIDAY MORNING PACKAGE.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE THERE. LEANING TOWARD
MAV NUMBERS...BUT AGAIN IF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY PER ETA/NAM SOLUTION THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL
HAVE TO BE INCREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP RATHER LIGHT FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT A LITTLE MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST AND A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THE SEA/LAKE BREEZES TO CAUSE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH TO THE CENTRAL WATERS
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE ONLY HAZARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BEING THE
ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 92 76 90 / 00 40 20 40
FMY 76 93 75 93 / 00 40 20 40
GIF 75 94 75 94 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 75 91 75 90 / 00 40 20 40
BKV 72 92 72 92 / 00 40 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...JILLSON
LONG TERM...CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
441 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-041400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
441 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CORAL NORTH TO NEW PORT RICHEY
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST
COVERAGE TODAY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... HEAVY RAINS...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

OUTSIDE OF TODAYS STORMS...HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS
104 DEGREES. THE WARMEST VALUES SHOULD BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTH WHERE FEWER THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET
THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE
STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR
AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE 100
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
639 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

FLZ057-042330-
HIGHLANDS-
639 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...WILL AFFECT RURAL SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS COUNTY...BETWEEN VENUS AND BRIGHTON...UNTIL 730 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
708 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

FLZ052-050000-
POLK-
708 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT LAKE
ALFRED...INWOOD...AUBURNDALE...CYPRESS GARDENDS...EAGLE LAKE...AND
WINTER HAVEN...UNTIL 800 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

RD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
730 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

FLZ057-050030-
HIGHLANDS-
730 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS
COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT
ARCHBOLD...UNTIL 830 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

RKR