Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON - THU)...A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE MEAN
LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM SE TO SW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL ALTER THE
BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND
POCKETS OF ENERGY ENSURE THAT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EVERYTHING GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN.
SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS MARCHING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...BUT AT THE IDEAL SPEED TO ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FROM SARASOTA NORTH. LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY
NASTY EVENING RUSH RAIN-WISE...BUT OTHERWISE THIS IS NORMALLY THE
MOST COMMON SITUATION FOR LATE JUNE THROUGH MID JULY.
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS SITUATION...AND MAY ADD A
REMAINDER OF AFTN/EARLY EVE PERIOD TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD WORDING.

AFTER SOME EVENING DEBRIS RAIN...EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD STILL BE AREAS OF CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS WITH PATCHY CU
UNDERNEATH...SO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL DO IT.  TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
A LITTLE AFTER THE WEATHER CLEARS...AGAIN NOTHING UNUSUAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE CHANGES IN MEAN WIND RELATED TO SOUTHWARD
SAGGING SURFACE RIDGE FAVORS INITIAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD STORMS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  PREFERRED LOCATIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
INLAND EXCEPT OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.  AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN STRONGER STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SARASOTA SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS IN THE GULF WATERS TO BEGIN HEADING BACK
TOWARD THE COAST.  THAT SAID...GIVEN THAT FLOW MAY NOT BE CHANNELED
ENOUGH AND GULF WATERS JUST A SMIDGE COOL PREFER ISOLATED MENTION
FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES/URBAN CENTERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NO CHANGES TO THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BLOSSOM A BIT EARLIER
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW...CARRYING WELL
INLAND BY AFTERNOON WITH A LIKELY TAILOFF NEAR THE COAST (NORTH OF
SARASOTA) BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HAVE GENERALLY LEFT TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ALONE...EXCEPT TAKEN DOWN
A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED RAINS
AND/OR RESIDUAL CLOUDS.  CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE LEAVE PRIMARY HAZARDS AS RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING...THOUGH
CANT RULE OUT THE ISOLATED SPIN-UP SPOUT OR SMALL TORNADO.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE STATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SE. THIS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL MOVES N OVER CENTRAL
FL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO N FL. THESE FEATURES SHOULD
PROVIDE SW FLOW IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.  TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC RIDGE LIFTS NORTHWARD...FLOW
BECOMES SE RETURNING US TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT THURS MORNING WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED.  STRENGTHENING AND MORE CHANNELED SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FAVOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY
WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDS BY INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 89 76 86 / 30 70 30 70
FMY 75 90 75 88 / 30 70 30 60
GIF 74 90 74 89 / 30 70 30 60
SRQ 74 88 74 85 / 30 70 30 70
BKV 73 89 73 87 / 30 70 30 70

&&

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1053 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-290000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1053 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA
AROUND NOON...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 2 PM. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM WITHIN 10 MILES OF
THE SUNCOAST FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH AND PERHAPS FROM SOUTHERN
SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTH.

ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 4
PM...FAVORING THE COASTAL COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IN THE TAMPA BAY AND
SARASOTA BRADENTON METRO AREAS. A GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AFTER 6 PM.

URBAN LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR
WILL SEE POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING. AREA RIVERS REMAIN
HIGH...WITH SOME IN ACTION STAGE. FOR RAPIDLY RISING RIVERS...ALL
IT WILL TAKE IS A SLOW MOVING STORM THAT PRODUCES 3 OR MORE INCHES
OF RAIN IN ITS TRIBUTARY BASIN TO PRODUCE MINOR RIVER FLOODING
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFETY BEFORE THE
STORMS DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES AND RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING ABOVE
NORMAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SETUP SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY REPORT HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATION AS NECESSARY.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
433 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FLZ060-282115-
SARASOTA-
433 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTEN SARASOTA COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WARM
MINERAL SPRINGS...LAUREL...SOUTH VENICE...ENGLEWOOD...VENICE
GARDENS...AND VENICE...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
433 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FLZ060-282115-
SARASOTA-
433 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SARASOTA COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WARM
MINERAL SPRINGS...LAUREL...SOUTH VENICE...ENGLEWOOD...VENICE
GARDENS...AND VENICE...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FLZ050-051-055-282230-
MANATEE-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
445 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT MOST OF
MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH AND PINELLAS COUNTIES INCLUDING MAJOR
HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH AND PINELLAS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LUTZ...TEMPLE TERRACE...BRANDON SAINT PETERSBURG AND TAMPA...UNTIL
630 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING UNDER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. SLOW DOWN ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING ON
INTERSTATE 275...4 OR 75. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE IF
WATER IS COVERING THE ROAD. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. MAY
WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES AND STATEMENTS.

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
507 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FLZ050-282145-
PINELLAS-
507 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAINT
PETERSBURG...GULFPORT...LEALMAN AND TREASURE ISLAND...UNTIL 545 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

JCM