Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL MOVING VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
STILL ANTICITIPATING THE SHORT WAVE NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GOM
WILL ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER LASTEST FEW WTR VPR
FRAMES SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE MAY BE WEAKENING. HOWEVER STILL THINK
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FROM TAMPA SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DECIDE BASED ON WHAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE NORTH OF TAMPA
WHERE THE BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S AND UPPER 50S IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

ON THU...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH FL WHILE
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD MEAN DRY CONDITIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE...SO WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS AREA. SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ON THU.

ON FRI...WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE STATE AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF...AND FLAT FLOW ALOFT...WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE TSTMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
TPA CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. SEASONABLE TEMPS AGAIN ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY
DIVERGENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.
WHILE THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS CAME IN DECIDEDLY WETTER FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE STILL MOSTLY LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT FOR POPS. ALSO...IN MANY CASES THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
RUN WAS THE HIGHEST OF THE POPS USED IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN A CASE
WHERE THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS ALSO ONE OF THE EXTREMES...I WOULD
NORMALLY LEAN TOWARD THE MEAN. SINCE THE 06Z OPERATIONAL RUN
CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD DEEPER MOISTURE FOR NEXT WEEK...I DECIDED
TO CONTINUE THE 30 POPS EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO
CLIMO.

OTHER THAN SUBTLE WIND DIFFERENCES...THE ONLY CHANGES I MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS ON SATURDAY TO SILENT 10S AS
DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE DEEP. ON SUNDAY...I LOWERED THE POPS
TO 20 FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT LEFT THE INTERIOR AT 30 PERCENT
WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE.

&&

.MARINE...MAY SEE A BRIEF NE SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY 15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON THU AND WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN RHS CLOSE
TO 35 PERCENT THU AFTERNOON NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. ATTM...IT APPEARS RH
DURATIONS WILL STAY LESS THAN 4 HRS IF THEY INDEED FALL AOB 35
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  67 86 69 88 / 20 00 00 20
FMY  69 89 70 89 / 20 20 00 20
GIF  67 88 67 90 / 20 10 00 20
SRQ  68 85 67 86 / 20 00 00 00
BKV  61 87 61 88 / 10 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
451 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
451 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND OR HAIL. IN ADDITION VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TODAY.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES FROM TAMPA SOUTH TO FORT MYERS TODAY. A
RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND
NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH
ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP
CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO LET THE
RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE FORCE
WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...WITH HEAVY RAINS...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
203 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2005

FLZ052-056-057-061-260000-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-
203 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 330 IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE AND DE SOTO COUNTIES.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL...EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

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