Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
915 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS APPROACHING PREFRONTAL LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOC WITH THIS
LINE. SPC HAS INDICATED (PER SWODY1) THAT MOIST AND MOD UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOLVL WIND FIELD...AND SHORT WAVE NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GOM...MAY RESULT IN ORGANIZED LONG-LIVED TSTMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.
TIMING OF CURRENT LINE SUGGESTS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL FIRST SEE
TSTM ACTIVITY PERHAPS AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY IN SPC SLT
RISK AREA...SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED REGARDING TSTM RISK OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE NOTICED PER EVENING DATA WAS THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...OR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
PRES WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. PER IR IMAGERY...THIS FEATURE
APPEARED AS A LOW LEVEL DENSITY CURRENT...AND SEVERAL BUOY AND SHIPS
SHOWED A RAPID WIND DIRECTION SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30-50KT RANGE. THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT REMINISCENT OF
THE 26DEC04 EARLY MORNING EVENT. CURRENTLY THE MODELS HAVE NOT
RESOLVED THIS FEATURE...AND THUS WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT IF
THIS FEATURE HOLDS TOGETHER THAT OUR FORECAST AREA...ESP COASTAL
SECTIONS...MAY SEE ANOTHER BRIEF EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SEPARATE FROM ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE
WIND GUSTS...AND BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...WOULD OCCUR AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS SUCH...NEXT SHIFT CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS TO
DETERMINE IF THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF.
IN THE MEANTIME...AFOREMENTIONED SPS BRIEFLY COVERS THESE CONCERNS
AS WELL.

CURRENT GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE AN EVENING UPDATE
TO INDICATE A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...EVENING MARINE OBS SHOWED FREQ GUSTS AOA 25KT IN THE
PREFRONTAL FLOW. IN ADDITION...PER DISC ABOVE...POST FRONTAL WINDS
IN THE MORNING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA. AS
SUCH WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE COASTAL WATERS TO SCA.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

NP/RS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
531 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131600-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
531 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF STATES. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO BUILD
SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION. TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS LINE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NATURE COAST
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE NATURE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THIS BAND
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAMPA METRO AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN CONTINUING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SHORT LIVED MARINE WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DURING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY BUT MAY BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
831 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141300-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
831 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PUT THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE LINE AROUND SUNRISE...A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND WILL COME
IN WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 TO 40 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1207 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

FLZ049>051-140600-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
1207 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PINELLAS...SOUTHWEST PASCO AND NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES
THROUGH 1 AM EST...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH...WILL
AFFECT LARGO...CLEARWATER BEACH...DUNEDIN AND CLEARWATER...HOLIDAY...
JASMINE ESTATES...TARPON SPRINGS...AND LUTZ UNTIL 100 AM EST. GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

JCM