Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000
WWUS52 KTAE 221328
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
828 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

FLC131-221345-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-050322T1345Z/
WALTON FL-
728 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR
NORTHERN WALTON COUNTY...

AT 725 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW HOME...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PLEASANT RIDGE AND SCONIERS MILL BY 730 AM CST...
  IONIA...COSSON MILL AND DEFUNIAK SPRINGS AIRPORT BY 735 AM CST...
  OAKWOOD HILLS...ALPINE HEIGHTS AND NARROWS BY 740 AM CST...
  CLUSTER SPRINGS AND SAND HILL BY 745 AM CST...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE. OR YOU
CAN ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE DIRECTLY AT
850-942-8833 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3055 8638 3065 8638 3098 8611 3098 8607
      3096 8604 3074 8604 3070 8605 3049 8625
      3049 8629

$$

48-TURNAGE

000 
WUUS52 KTAE 051746
SVRTAE
GAC017-155-051830-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0015.051205T1746Z-051205T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1246 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL BEN HILL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FITZGERALD
  NORTHWESTERN IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 130 PM EST(1230 PM CST)

* AT 1239 PM EST(1139 AM CST)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
  RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MYSTIC...OR
  ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF FITZGERALD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE. OR YOU
CAN ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE DIRECTLY AT
850-942-8833 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3168 8347 3159 8337 3173 8318 3182 8324
      3183 8337

$$

23-MCNATT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS IMPRESSIVE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS IT SPINS OVER NRN OK THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN ROUGHLY THE SAME
POSITION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO NRN AND CENTRAL TX
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL
LA. FROM THERE, THE FRONT IS QUASISTATIONARY AS IT EXTENDS EWD
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MS, AL AND GA. SEVERAL LINES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NE OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN OK, AR,
AND NRN LA, IN AN AREA OF STRONGLY VEERED FLOW. THE KLZK (LITTLE
ROCK) 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 400 M2/S2. THIS AREA
IS ALSO IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE. SEVERAL WATCH BOXES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. ITLL BE OUR TURN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, LOW STRATUS IS MOVING
NEWD ACROSS OUR FL ZONES. DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS OUR COASTAL ZONES, WITH BUOY 42039 SHOWING A DEW POINT OF
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU.
THE OK LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD TO A POSITION OVER THE OZARK
REGION BY 00Z WED. THIS WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE SERN U.S.IN A REGION
OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE SYSTEM EDGES EWD, THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD ALLOWING MID 60S DEW POINTS TO ADVECT NWD
ACROSS THE CWFA FROM THE GULF. THOSE AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT
DESTABILIZATION. THE GFS SHOWS LIS AROUND -4 BY 00Z OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE NAM IS EVEN MORE UNSTABLE, SHOWING LIS RANGING FROM
-4 E TO -9 W AT 00Z, AND CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES. THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WELL N OF THE AREA, BUT
WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN RECOGNITION OF
THE FACT THAT THE BEST WIND FIELDS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE N OF
THE AREA, SPC HAS SCALED BACK THE MDT RISK AREA TO N OF THE FL
BORDER. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY A WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR OUR FL ZONES, AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVES IN AND 500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -20 C. STORMS THAT RUN UP
OVER THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR, SO AREAS WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK RUN A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING ISOLATED TORNADOES. IT IS NOTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ROTATE AROUND TO THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW BY TONIGHT, PLACING
MUCH OF N FL IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION. IN
ADDITION, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN E OF THE AREA. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR ERN BIG BEND ZONES. POPS
WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
TODAY. WE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR TONIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ANTICIPATED TIMING OF THIS EVENT. WE WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE
WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE
EVENING PERIOD EVERYWHERE AND ALL NIGHT FOR OUR ERN BIG BEND ZONES.
WE KEEP A LOW POP SE FOR WED MORNING. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A DRY AND
WARM DAY ON THU, THE GOOD SIDE OF SPRING WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG, LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE SE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WE ARE LOOKING FOR EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND LINGER UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
SEAS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BY TONIGHT AS THEY ARE ALREADY
RUNNING ABOUT 5 FT AT THE BUOYS, DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION
FROM SWELLS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CAUTION ON WED, BUT SEAS WILL
BE A BIT SLOWER TO RESPOND. BOATERS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WED, IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR CRITICAL RHS TO BE MET. THU IS LIKELY
THE ONLY DAY WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THIS WEEK, AND THEN ONLY FOR OUR FL ZONES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...VALDOSTA HAS JUST DROPPED BACK TO ITS FLOOD STAGE,
LEAVING ONLY LAMONT STILL IN FLOOD. HPC AND SERFC QPF IS
INSUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, IF THE
SECONDARY BAND OF STORMS MENTIONED ABOVE SETS UP JUST A BIT FURTHER
NW THAN THE GFS DEPICTS, THE WITHLACOOCHEE AND AUCILLA WOULD SEE
ADDITIONAL RISES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE  76 62 77 48 / 80 60 20 05
PANAMA CITY  73 63 75 56 / 80 50 10 05
DOTHAN       70 58 76 50 / 70 50 05 05
ALBANY       70 58 76 50 / 80 60 10 05
VALDOSTA     73 62 79 50 / 80 70 20 05
CROSS CITY   76 66 77 50 / 80 80 30 05

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

WOOL/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
501 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-231200-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA...
ASHBURN...BAINBRIDGE...BLAKELY...BLOUNTSTOWN...BONIFAY...CAIRO...
CALLAWAY...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...CHIPLEY...COLQUITT...COTTONWOOD...
CRAWFORDVILLE...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...DALEVILLE...DAWSON...
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...DONALSONVILLE...DOWNTOWN DOTHAN...ELBA...
ENTERPRISE...FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...FORT RUCKER...GENEVA...
GEORGETOWN...HEADLAND...LAKELAND...LEESBURG...MADISON...MARIANNA...
MAYO...MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...NEWTON...
OCILLA...OZARK...PANAMA CITY...PANAMA CITY BEACH...PELHAM...PERRY...
PORT ST. JOE...PUTNEY...QUITMAN...SANTA ROSA BEACH...ST. MARKS...
STEINHATCHEE...SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON...
VALDOSTA AND VERNON
501 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT OVER
THE EASTERN BIG BEND COUNTIES. A WARM FRONT OVER EXTREME SOUTH
GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY AND A JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...AN
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAST ACROSS MUCH OF DIXIE. THE SQUALL LINE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH
GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IS
IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE UPPER JET MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET. HOWEVER...SOME 7 FOOT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT. THIS WOULD PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION TODAY, AND
SHOULD POSTPONE THEIR TRIP IF POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER BOTH
OVER LAND AND OUT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS YET ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES...INCLUDING SAINT GEORGE
ISLAND. WIND...WAVE...AND TIDAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE
FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW
CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT
CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

DURING TIMES OF MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK...PERSONS SHOULD ENTER THE
WATER ONLY IF THEY ARE EXPERIENCED WITH SWIMMING IN THE SURF. IF YOU
ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS PARALLEL TO THE BEACH
UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL. TO ESCAPE...RIDE THE CURRENT OUT
BEYOND THE SURF ZONE WHERE THE RIP CURRENT DISSIPATES...THEN SWIM TO
SHORE OUTSIDE THE NARROW CURRENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT..
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE TODAY...NO LATER THAN THE
ISSUANCE OF THE FIRST CONVECTIVE WATCH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NECESSARY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

18-WOOL