Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005
Mesoscale Discussion 968
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2005, 1:16 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 23, 2005, 1:16 PM EDT (17:16 UTC)
- Expired
- May 23, 2005, 2:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 87 counties
Saint Mary's County, MD, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Berkeley County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, Brunswick County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 101 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -43 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 735 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 187 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 239 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 231716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231716 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND PORTIONS OF ERN NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231716Z - 231845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA SWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA IN THE LYH AREA WITH A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW NEAR A RDU-FAY-AGS LINE. AIR MASS IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A 7OKT MID LEVEL JET IS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION LOCATED ACROSS ERN VA. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS STRONGER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONGER CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE LEESIDE TROUGH...S OF FLO...IS AIDING IN CUMULUS ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE WEAK CAP...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP INTO STORMS SHORTLY...WITH OTHERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT WOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE...SO STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER ENOUGH COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP FOR A WW ISSUANCE. ..IMY.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33378094 34297983 35487825 36797787 38187742 38647673 37867579 36067569 34057761 32897973 32628049
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 3:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Charles | 6 hr |
| May 23, 5:12 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Charles | 93 min |
| May 23, 5:36 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Charles | 84 min |
| May 23, 6:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Amelia, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greensville and 7 more | 63 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.