Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 910

May 19, 20056 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 19, 2005, 10:44 AM CDT for 6 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 19, 2005, 10:44 AM CDT (15:44 UTC)
Expired
May 19, 2005, 1:15 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 175 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clay County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Marion County, IL, Massac County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Greene County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Ballard County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boone County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Henry County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Larue County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marion County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Webster County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Barry County, MO, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Hamilton County, OH

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 274 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2005-05-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 35 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2005-05-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 146 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
35 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-111 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
754 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
146 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
199 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 191545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191544 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/IL/IND...NRN AR...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191544Z - 191815Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/SERN MO...NRN AR...SRN
IL/IND AND WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM
OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD TO
SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC HEATING
EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES INHIBITION. FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE NEAR/ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NRN AR/SRN MO...NEWD TO SCNTRL IL. THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER SERN IL AND
THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS SRN OH.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FURTHER SERVE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM ATOP MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY HIGH MLCAPE VALUES
REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AS MID LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY ACROSS IA/NRN IL...SPREADS SEWD
TOWARD THE MO BOOTHEEL AND LWR OH VLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AS WELL AS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND
SHEAR...A WATCH OR WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

38259102 39008903 39938481 38688419 36778578 36798817
36548932 35759424 37219367

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 19, 11:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett, Randolph8 hr
May 19, 3:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene84 min
May 19, 5:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett, Randolph91 min
May 19, 6:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Coles and 34 more92 min
May 19, 12:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Henry and 16 more2 hr
May 19, 1:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 25 more8 hr
May 19, 3:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 33 more85 min
May 19, 6:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBond, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clay, Clinton and 40 more6 hr
May 19, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 33 more90 min
May 19, 12:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Perry and 4 more8 hr
May 19, 1:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Benton, Boone, Brown, Clay, Clinton and 38 more2 hr
May 19, 2:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clay, Daviess, Decatur and 26 more7 hr
May 19, 3:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clay, Decatur, Fayette, Franklin and 17 more94 min
May 19, 3:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Perry, Pike and 3 more64 min
May 19, 4:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Cass, Clinton, Fountain and 18 more4 hr
May 19, 6:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Perry, Spencer and 2 more2 hr
May 19, 6:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clay, Daviess, Dearborn, Decatur and 12 more91 min
May 19, 3:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 51 more7 hr
May 18, 7:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJackson35 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.