Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 739

May 5, 200528 counties in Minnesota; Richland County, Sargent County, North Dakota; 10 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 5, 2005, 12:02 PM CDT for 28 counties in Minnesota; Richland County, Sargent County, North Dakota; 10 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 5, 2005, 12:02 PM CDT (17:02 UTC)
Expired: May 5, 2005, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 40 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Benton County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Brown County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Marshall County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 194 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1732 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 103 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 051703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051702 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ND...NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051702Z - 051930Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SERN ND/NERN SD
AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-20Z. 

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL
SD...SERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CONVECTION WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT RUC/NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SURFACE
BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE REMOVING THE REMAINING CINH. IN ADDITION...SFC
BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MN /NORTH OF
THE MSP AREA/. A SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPTS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY AS DEEPER MIXING
OFFSETS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS WITH A SFC PARCEL OF
LOWER 70S/UPPER 40S INDICATES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG OF SBCAPE. 35 TO
40 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A
SVR HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FAVOR OUTFLOW GENERATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC BASED CONVECTION INITIATES.
THE OVERALL LIMITED NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SVR
THREAT TO MORE MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

47239273 47439415 46519696 45769877 45219895 44669820
44489783 44539671 44949471 45889284 46289259

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.