Mesoscale Discussion 49

Issued

Jan 8, 2005, 7:14 AM EST (12:14 UTC)

Expired

Jan 8, 2005, 12:15 PM EST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 081214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081214 
NYZ000-PAZ000-081715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NY...FAR NWRN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 081214Z - 081715Z

MDT-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN PA/SWRN NY THROUGH
15Z...BEFORE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACK REGION
OF NY BETWEEN 15-18Z. HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN NY/NWRN PA THROUGH 15Z.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAS APPARENTLY REACHED MATURITY AS MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. A WELL FORMED DEFORMATION ZONE WITH MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS 
WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM
FAR SERN MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/FAR SWRN NY THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY BY 18Z. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE AT TIMES REACHED 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPARENTLY REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY...AND THE DRYSLOT WILL FURTHER AID IN OCCLUSION AND
BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND...HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAX SNOWFALL RATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY. AS LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS BEHIND N-S
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH...AREAS OF CENTRAL/SWRN NY WILL SEE A CHANGE
OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER TO MDT-HVY SNOW DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING.

..CROSBIE.. 01/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

44027426 44507564 43377676 43207903 42058043 41688011
42017879 42287733 43247479

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.