Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 366

March 23, 20055 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 23, 2005, 11:41 AM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 23, 2005, 11:41 AM EST (16:41 UTC)
Expired
Mar 23, 2005, 12:45 PM EST
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 97 counties

Bell County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Anderson County, TN, Blount County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Polk County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, Bland County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 297 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2005-03-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2005-03-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 101 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
426 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 231642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231641 
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231641Z - 231745Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS ERN KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV AND SWRN VA.  HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN KY WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  SURFACE
HEATING BENEATH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22 C AT
500 MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOB 500
J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHILE 15Z RUC INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES
UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LOW...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  

LIMITING FACTOR ATTM FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE IS THE FORECAST OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  IF INSTABILITY SHOWS SIGNS OF GREATER VALUES
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ERN
KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV/SWRN VA.

..PETERS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...

36728462 37998387 38558295 38658062 36998108 35468241
34988385 35158491

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 22, 8:47 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Marshall and 1 more88 min
Mar 23, 12:42 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden and 48 more93 min
Mar 23, 4:50 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Cabarrus, Camden and 60 more55 min
Mar 23, 5:25 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Caswell, Chatham and 35 more6 hr
Mar 22, 11:11 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson and 22 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.