Mesoscale Discussion 2575

Issued

Dec 15, 2005, 8:18 PM EST (01:18 UTC)

Expired

Dec 16, 2005, 12:45 AM EST

In force

4 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The State College radar (KCCX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 160118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160118 
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-160545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL NY/MUCH OF PA/WRN CT/NRN NJ/MD/FAR
NRN VA/WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 160118Z - 160545Z

PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
PA...NRN NJ...INTO SRN/CNTRL NY AND WRN CT THIS EVENING. ACROSS WRN
PA/WRN NY...A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS NRN VA/MUCH OF MD/SE PA/MOST OF NJ PRIOR
TO 06Z.

WITH BROAD NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...VORTICITY MAX AND STRONG MID/UPPER JET CONTINUES TO RACE
EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...BROAD/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CONTRIBUTING
TO NEWD TRANSITION OF BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES.

AS SEEN IN THE 00Z WASHINGTON-DULLES RAOB...NWD EXTRAPOLATION OF
ELEVATED MELTING LAYER WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS
PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN PA AND NRN NJ INTO
SRN/CNTRL NY AND WRN CT MUCH OF THE EVENING...WHERE WEDGE OF SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL BE MAINTAINED. SOME SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

FURTHER WEST...00Z PITTSBURG AND 00Z BUFFALO RAOBS FEATURE A 1-2C
WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB...STILL AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN/SOME SLEET. HOWEVER...WITH NOCTURNAL/DYNAMIC COOLING
AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION...21Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF WRN PA/WRN NY BY
LATE EVENING...WITH MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW PREVALENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR IN THESE AREAS BY 06Z.

..GUYER.. 12/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

43007437 41607284 41177380 40127503 39637663 39227774
38567885 38737931 39677952 40097994 41568027 43177865
43397632

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.