Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 2452

November 21, 20055 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 21, 2005, 3:49 PM EST for 5 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 21, 2005, 3:49 PM EST (20:49 UTC)
Expired: Nov 21, 2005, 5:15 PM EST
In force: 86 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Washington County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 147 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -33 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 645 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 243 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 317 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 212049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212049 
NCZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873...

VALID 212049Z - 212215Z

CONTINUE WW.

STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF LEAD WAVE ALONG COASTAL FRONT...WHICH HAS
FORMED A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  WARM
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
...JUST NOW ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...IS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
IT PROGRESSES NORTH OF MOREHEAD CITY INTO THE OUTER BANKS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

IF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS DO OCCUR...SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM
SECTOR WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADIC/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 11/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

34297789 35097786 35697700 36167638 36427581

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 21, 10:15 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brunswick, Carteret, Dare, Hyde, New Hanover, Pamlico	2 hr
Nov 21, 12:14 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Carteret, Pamlico	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.