Mesoscale Discussion 2421

Issued

Nov 15, 2005, 2:22 AM CST (08:22 UTC)

Expired

Nov 15, 2005, 4:15 AM CST

In force

113 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 150822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150822 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-151015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO/WRN KS/SRN IL/SRN IN/PARTS OF
WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...863...

VALID 150822Z - 151015Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 862 AND 863...WITH THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO CONTINUING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO ENEWD
ALONG/INVOF THE OH RIVER.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE INVOF MAIN WARM FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING
FROM SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MO AND THEN
ENEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER.  THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

THOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY.  EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY AND
AREAS N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW 862/863 S OF WARM
FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE FRONT.  THOUGH THIS MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE THUS
FAR...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS
EVOLVE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ACQUISITION OF ROTATION WITH ANY
STRONGER CELL.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND DRY SLOT
APPARENTLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY
-- IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS...EXPECT MAIN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
THREAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WW 862/AWAY FROM CENTRAL OK
WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36719706 38308569 36318602 35269111 34669583

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.