Mesoscale Discussion 2413

Issued

Nov 14, 2005, 6:28 AM CST (12:28 UTC)

Expired

Nov 14, 2005, 8:30 AM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 141229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141228 
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141228Z - 141430Z

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE NOT LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MORNING...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WITHIN ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SRN STREAM UPPER FEATURE NOW MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS TX.  

BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX EWD
ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER INTO NRN MS/NRN AL ATTM -- IS PARTICULARLY
STABLE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT N OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
HAIL.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID-LEVEL
ROTATION...GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO LESS THAN AN INCH OR SO.  

ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS
STABLE...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STABLE ATTM TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN A VERY MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO THREAT.  AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. 
HOWEVER...WITH MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LIMITED TO WARM ADVECTION --
AND THUS CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS N OF WARM FRONT...AMOUNT OF
WARM-SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM.  WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED/WARM SECTOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 11/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

32419610 34799509 35749380 35478989 34368754 32828759
31949356

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.