Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005
Mesoscale Discussion 2213
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 16, 2005, 1:43 PM MDT for Eddy County, New Mexico; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 16, 2005, 1:43 PM MDT (19:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 16, 2005, 4:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Eddy County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 218 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 609 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -108 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 610 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 176 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 218 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 161944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161943 TXZ000-NMZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FAR W TX...SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161943Z - 162215Z TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN HIGHER TERRAIN OVER JEFF DAVIS/PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTIES TX...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS REGION. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL. WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX WWD INTO DAVIS MOUNTAIN AREA. SFC MOIST AXIS -- INCLUDING A FEW DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F -- IS ANALYZED FROM 6R6-CNM-TCC. EARLIER STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER HAS LARGELY ERODED OVER W TX AND IS BREAKING INTO STRATOCUMULI OVER SERN NM...ALLOWING STRONG INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT CONTINUED ELY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO OVERCOME MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER -- EVIDENT IN 12Z MAF/DRT RAOBS -- YIELDING DEEP CONVECTIVE PROFILE WITH MLCAPES APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND SHORT-LIVED STORM ROTATION IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM JEFF DAVIS COUNTY NWD. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...STRONG VEERING OF WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT IS INDICATED IN MAF VWP...AND PROGGED BY SHORT-TERM RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM AGL SRH UP TO 200 J/KG. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...HOWEVER WARM LOW-MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES PREVALENT BENEATH UPPER HIGH MAY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT. RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL MARGINALIZE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30880500 31610512 33240504 33380453 32590423 31770398 31210364 30610349 30080362 29790378 29840420 30730491
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.