Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 2

January 1, 200510 counties in Minnesota; 23 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2005, 7:25 AM CST for 10 counties in Minnesota; 23 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 1, 2005, 7:25 AM CST (13:25 UTC)
Expired: Jan 1, 2005, 11:30 AM CST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 33 counties

Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McLean County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 608 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 548 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

168 
ACUS11 KWNS 011325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011325 
MNZ000-NDZ000-011730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN ND / NWRN MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 011325Z - 011730Z

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NRN AND ERN ND AND WILL DEVELOP
INTO NWRN MN BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 -
1.5 IN / HR APPEAR LIKELY.  

12Z BIS RAOB SATURATED UP TO ABOUT 500 MB WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
RANGE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB.  CONTINUED
THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN AFOREMENTIONED 700-550 LAYER SHIFTING EWD
WITH TIME INTO ERN ND AND NWRN MN.

..JEWELL.. 01/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

47400056 47430122 47590207 48280239 49010244 49019784
49009652 48089565 47549520 46789555 46769686 47299903

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 1, 6:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Cottonwood, Dakota and 31 more	4 hr
Jan 1, 12:32 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Big Stone, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 44 more	5 hr
Jan 1, 1:01 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Carlton, Cass, Clay and 25 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.