Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 1981

August 14, 20056 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 14, 2005, 12:08 PM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 14, 2005, 12:08 PM EDT (16:08 UTC)
Expired: Aug 14, 2005, 2:15 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 67 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 720Aug 14, 1:15 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 295 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -113 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 848 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 141608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141608 
NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...SERN NY THROUGH MA...RI AND
CT...VT...NH AND NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141608Z - 141815Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT
COUPLE HOURS FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND SPREAD EWD
THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW
ENGLAND WSWWD THROUGH SRN NY AND INTO NWRN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF
THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK CAP AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NRN PA INTO SRN NY. ACTIVITY WILL BE
DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES FROM 25 TO 40 KT IN THE 2-6 KM
LAYER WILL BE MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT ALSO
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT FROM SE AND E CNTRL NY THROUGH PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.
THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...SOME HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 08/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

41237833 42837523 43247130 41057216 40377444 40587735

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 14, 1:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC		9 hr
Aug 14, 4:38 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.