Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 1913

August 1, 20059 counties in North Dakota; Corson County, Dewey County, South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 1, 2005, 4:32 PM MDT for 9 counties in North Dakota; Corson County, Dewey County, South Dakota. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 1, 2005, 4:32 PM MDT (22:32 UTC)
Expired: Aug 1, 2005, 6:30 PM MDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Adams County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stark County, ND, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1523 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 126 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 012232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012232 
SDZ000-NDZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL ND AND FAR N-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012232Z - 020030Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ND AND FAR NRN SD WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SPATIALLY CONFINED
AND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. 

AT 2220Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND...AND ARE LIKELY BEING FED BY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SW IN THE 1-3KM LAYER. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE-NW ALONG WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL SD
INTO WRN ND AND FAR NERN MT. MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PROFILE CAN BE INFERRED FROM BIS VAD WIND PROFILE. WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35-40
KT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY EWD
PER LATEST RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS.  AS CONVECTION
TRACKS GENERALLY ENEWD AT 15-20 KT...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER
LESS INSTABILITY...SO GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45610226 46210291 47150344 47490337 47720259 47680189
47360127 46920076 46470038 45980024 45490016 45140018
44980058 45040123 45220178

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2005 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.